WR · WAS · 153 lines since 2023
Terry McLaurin Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Terry McLaurin, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 32% — we make it 40%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 26 (P(over) 69%)
- Line 40.5 rec yds — we project 58 (P(over) 66%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 64%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 22 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 22 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 18, under 29 (47 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 3 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: Explosive plays 0–3 · model 24–25 · Red-zone defense 1–1 · Pre-snap motion 5–2 · Freezing 1–1 · Short week 4–0 · Middle of the field 4–5 · Play action 2–0 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Missed tackles 3–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 32% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 26 | 69% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 58 | 66% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 38 | 45% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 48 | 45% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 62 | 59% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 58% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 53 | 51% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 48% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 47 | 44% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 51% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 53 | 46% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 49 | 45% / 49% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 40 | 53% / 49% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | – | – / 36% | – | void |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 45 | 50% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 62% / 51% | 56 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 64 | 65% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 76% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 54% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 48 | 47% / 51% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 23.5 | 29 | 67% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 86 | 72% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 73% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 73 | 63% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 83 | 62% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 68 | 56% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 87 | 65% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 61 | 54% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 57 | 45% / 51% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 57 | 46% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 60 | 52% / 50% | 113 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 62 | 50% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 59 | 53% / 49% | 125 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 71 | 55% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 71 | 58% / 52% | 53 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 64% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 71 | 65% / 50% | 112 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 68% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 55 | 50% / 50% | 52 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 42 | 40% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 43 | 47% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 59 | 50% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 46 | 38% / 53% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 53 | 46% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 43 | 45% / 48% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 51 | 42% / 52% | 141 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 51 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 42 | 34% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 56 | 46% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 54 | 44% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 58 | 46% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 42% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 53 | 45% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 40 | 31% / 49% | 90 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 38 | 36% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 54 | 47% / 51% | 49 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 39 | 37% / 49% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 44% / 49% | 41 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 31 | 31% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 52.5 | – | – / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 42% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Under 41.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 57.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 51.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 60.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 60.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 66.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 56.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 61.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 61.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 61.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 57.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 55.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 55.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 64.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 61.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 55.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 57.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 48.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 48.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology