TE · NYG · 110 lines since 2023
Theo Johnson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Theo Johnson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 10%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 15, under 15 (30 graded)
- Receptions over 12, under 18 (30 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 25 (31 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 7 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 4–0 · model 30–34 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Freezing 1–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Starters out on defense 1–0 · Short week 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 12 | 56% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 75% / 67% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 16 | 66% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 0.5 | 2 | 84% / 65% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 36 | 78% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 83% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | – | – / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 30.5 | – | – / 53% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 58% | – | void |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 56% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 33 | 44% / 51% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 26 | 39% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 16.5 | 14 | 42% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 26 | 38% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 15 | 40% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 30 | 33% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 51% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 31 | 42% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 40% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 22 | 36% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 10 | 37% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 16 | 28% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 42% / 53% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 21 | 33% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 11 | 39% / 48% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 16 | 32% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 18% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 44% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 42% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 44% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 42% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 42% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 43% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 40% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 9.9 | 40% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.9 | 35% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 15 | 32% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.5 | 35% / 49% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 15% / 39% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 7.5 | 35% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.5 | 37% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 42% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | – | – / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 60% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 8.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 37.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 34.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 42.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 28.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 30.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 21.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 23.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology