TE · MIN · 173 lines since 2023
T.J. Hockenson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for T.J. Hockenson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 33%
- Line 16.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 40.5 rec yds — we project 45 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 5 (P(over) 60%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 30, under 24 (54 graded)
- Receptions over 30, under 24 (54 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 36 (44 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 10 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 6–4 · model 22–30 · Starters out on defense 4–4 · Dome team outdoors 10–8 · Short week 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Pre-snap motion 8–4 · Play action 1–1 · Missed tackles 1–1 · Explosive plays 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 31% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 56% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 45 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 30 | 40% / 50% | 119 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 46% | 13 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 47% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 26 | 43% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 27 | 54% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 29.5 | – | – / 49% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 44% | – | void |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 53% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 49% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 50% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 55% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 52% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 48% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 49% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 44% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 56% / 48% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 27 | 52% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 54% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 31 | 50% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 61% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 58% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 30 | 47% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 27 | 43% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 52% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 23 | 38% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 33 | 42% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 41% / 52% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 32 | 40% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 50% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 34 | 39% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 45 | 45% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 39 | 41% / 52% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 39 | 44% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 45 | 55% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 48 | 49% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 39% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 33 | 37% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 32 | 44% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 34 | 46% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 51 | 47% / 49% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 51 | 48% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 51 | 47% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 51 | 48% / 54% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 50% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 50% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 57 | 62% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 57 | 62% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 43% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 65 | 51% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 65 | 50% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 47% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 47% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 62 | 52% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 62 | 54% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 63% / 59% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 63% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 44 | 46% / 49% | 134 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 44 | 47% / 50% | 134 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 57% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 56% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 40 | 40% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 40 | 32% / 49% | 88 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 40 | 32% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 34 | 28% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 52% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 33 | 26% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 27% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 39 | 32% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 36% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 41 | 42% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 38 | 34% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 28 | 24% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 28 | 24% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 61% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 59% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 44.5 | – | – / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 44.5 | – | – / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 49% | 8 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 38.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 30.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 30.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 30.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 29.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Under 26.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 24.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 32.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 38.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 42.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 44.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 43.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 43.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology