RB · TEN · 256 lines since 2023
Tony Pollard Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tony Pollard, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 32% — we make it 33%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 5.4 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 8.5 rec yds — we project 7.3 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 14.5 rush attempts — we project 14 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 64.5 rush + rec yds — we project 58 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 50.5 rush yds — we project 49 (P(over) 47%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 25, under 29 (54 graded)
- Receiving yards over 24, under 29 (53 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 29 (53 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 39 (54 graded)
- Rush attempts over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 7 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 59–51 · Starters out on defense 5–2 · Missed tackles 11–23 · Big underdog (6.5+) 5–4 · Pre-snap motion 5–6 · Man coverage 0–1 · Blitz-heavy defense 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 6–1 · Explosive plays 2–0 · Red-zone defense 0–2 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 32% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.4 | 38% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.3 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 64.5 | 58 | 43% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 49 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.8 | 43% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 53 | 55% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.3 | 45% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 37% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 55 | 45% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.6 | 39% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 54 | 70% / 49% | 64 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.2 | 49% / 49% | -1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 83 | 80% / 49% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.7 | 39% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.6 | 44% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 15.5 | 13 | 33% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 47 | 29% / 49% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 5.5 | 4.9 | 47% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.9 | 48% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 14.5 | 15 | 53% / 53% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 61 | 48% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.7 | 46% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 14.5 | 13 | 43% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 51 | 41% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 6.5 | 5.5 | 43% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.3 | 44% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 44 | 41% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.6 | 33% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.0 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 14.5 | 13 | 42% / 46% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 40 | 37% / 49% | 161 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.8 | 39% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.9 | 48% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 11.5 | 12 | 53% / 47% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 40 | 54% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.3 | 43% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.2 | 46% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 10.5 | 13 | 65% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 37 | 51% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.4 | 44% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.1 | 49% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 11.5 | 13 | 64% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 44 | 55% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.8 | 41% / 52% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 10.0 | 42% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 10.5 | 12 | 63% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 39 | 50% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.6 | 38% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 47% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 10.5 | 12 | 62% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 38 | 46% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 6.5 | 6.3 | 49% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 8.7 | 55% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 47% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 45 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.3 | 43% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.4 | 43% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 53 | 49% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.2 | 49% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 14.5 | 18 | 67% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 58 | 53% / 51% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.3 | 35% / 47% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 8.6 | 41% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 17.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 53 | 35% / 50% | 64 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.7 | 41% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.9 | 39% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 53% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 63 | 42% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.8 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 9.6 | 30% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 62 | 43% / 48% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.5 | 45% / 48% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 52% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 53 | 39% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 86.5 | 75 | 40% / 50% | 62 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 43% | – | void |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 43% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 62 | 53% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 56 | 41% / 49% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 63 | 45% / 49% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 66 | 51% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 63 | 54% / 49% | 119 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 43% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 51 | 47% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 62 | 53% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 80 | 60% / 49% | 128 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 39% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 58 | 47% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 14 | 25% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 69 | 49% / 51% | 61 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | -5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 75 | 59% / 51% | 93 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 35% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 46 | 43% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 63 | 50% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.4 | 31% / 49% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 57 | 57% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 8.3 | 39% / 52% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 47 | 53% / 49% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 80 | 64% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 63% TD chance | 63% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 20 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 86 | 77% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 17 | 45% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 57 | 55% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 41% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 60 | 56% / 51% | 52 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 45% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 68 | 59% / 49% | 59 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 20 | 46% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 71 | 59% / 52% | 68 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 70 | 55% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 38% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 67 | 49% / 52% | 61 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 69 | 50% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 21 | 40% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 44 | 36% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 25 | 51% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 65 | 44% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 18 | 45% / 51% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 62 | 42% / 52% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 14 | 30% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 54 | 44% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 42% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 69 | 47% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 24 | 56% / 49% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 69% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 58 | 34% / 49% | 122 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 15 | 37% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 59% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 56 | 34% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | – | – / 46% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 70.5 | – | – / 50% | 70 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 48.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 48.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 59.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 67.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 62.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 58.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 12.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 49.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 49.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 48.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 48.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 48.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 37.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 36.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 36.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 39.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 13.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology