WR · SEA · 44 lines since 2023
Tory Horton Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tory Horton, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 15% — we make it 9%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 6.7 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 10.5 rec yds — we project 7.9 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 34%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 6 (11 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: model 6–7 · Pre-snap motion 2–0 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.7 | 46% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.9 | 44% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 37% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 9.3 | 54% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 3.2 | 56% / 42% | 48 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | – | void |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 45% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 22 | 36% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 25 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 56% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 53% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 50% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 13.5 | 17 | 59% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 25 | 61% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 11.5 | 5.9 | 34% / 48% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 6.6 | 36% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | – | – / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | – | – / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 45% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 21.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 25.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology