QB · JAX · 245 lines since 2023

Trevor Lawrence Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Trevor Lawrence, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 14%
Line 29.5 pass attempts — we project 30 (P(over) 53%)
Line 19.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 51%)
Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 48%)
Line 225.5 pass yds — we project 222 (P(over) 48%)
Line 3.5 rush attempts — we project 4 (P(over) 54%)
Line 14.5 rush yds — we project 14 (P(over) 48%)

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 24, under 23 (47 graded)
Passing TDs over 20, under 27 (47 graded)
Rushing yards over 22, under 24 (46 graded)
Anytime TD over 11, under 36 (47 graded)
Pass attempts over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
Completions over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
Rush attempts over 10, under 7 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Pressure 3–7 · Man coverage 0–1 · model 51–35 · High total (48.5+) 6–3 · Low total (40.5 or less) 2–5 · Starters out on defense 9–4 · Play action 1–0 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Trevor Lawrence prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 25%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass att	29.5	30	53% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Cmp	19.5	20	51% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	48% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass yds	225.5	222	48% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	3.5	4	54% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	14.5	14	48% / 49%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	0	under
2026 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 55%	1	under
2026 W4	Pass yds	258.5	241	43% / 50%	227	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	14.5	14	48% / 50%	0	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 26%	0	under
2026 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 49%	3	over
2026 W3	Pass yds	225.5	231	52% / 50%	182	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	16.5	14	43% / 50%	25	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 21%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 44%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass yds	223.5	212	44% / 50%	189	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	16.5	14	43% / 50%	6	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 28%	0	under
2026 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	46% / 48%	4	over
2026 W1	Pass yds	231.5	225	47% / 50%	245	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	16.5	19	56% / 50%	3	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass att	31.5	31	50% / 51%	30	under
2025 W18	Cmp	20.5	19	42% / 48%	22	over
2025 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	2	57% / 61%	3	over
2025 W18	Pass yds	247.5	258	54% / 50%	255	over
2025 W18	Rush att	5.5	5	37% / 42%	2	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	18.5	24	61% / 50%	11	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 28%	1	over
2025 W17	Pass att	33.5	34	51% / 48%	37	over
2025 W17	Cmp	21.5	21	46% / 48%	23	over
2025 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 57%	0	under
2025 W17	Pass yds	250.5	256	53% / 50%	263	over
2025 W17	Rush att	5.5	4	31% / 42%	8	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	18.5	19	51% / 51%	26	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	1	over
2025 W16	Pass att	33.5	33	48% / 47%	36	over
2025 W16	Cmp	19.5	20	57% / 50%	23	over
2025 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	1	40% / 42%	3	over
2025 W16	Pass yds	225.5	222	49% / 50%	279	over
2025 W16	Rush att	4.5	4	38% / 53%	6	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	19.5	15	39% / 50%	20	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 27%	1	over
2025 W15	Pass att	30.5	30	47% / 48%	32	over
2025 W15	Cmp	18.5	19	50% / 48%	20	over
2025 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	1	48% / 53%	5	over
2025 W15	Pass yds	218.5	232	56% / 50%	330	over
2025 W15	Rush att	4.5	5	57% / 54%	5	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	14.5	21	64% / 50%	51	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	0	under
2025 W14	Pass att	31.5	32	55% / 49%	30	under
2025 W14	Cmp	19.5	20	53% / 50%	17	under
2025 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 40%	2	over
2025 W14	Pass yds	210.5	213	51% / 50%	244	over
2025 W14	Rush att	4.5	4	44% / 47%	4	under
2025 W14	Rush yds	15.5	14	48% / 50%	16	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 24%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass att	31.5	30	44% / 50%	27	under
2025 W13	Cmp	19.5	19	46% / 51%	16	under
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 44%	2	over
2025 W13	Pass yds	219.5	221	51% / 50%	229	over
2025 W13	Rush att	4.5	5	54% / 45%	3	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	15.5	19	56% / 50%	25	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 27%	0	under
2025 W12	Pass att	31.5	32	50% / 49%	30	under
2025 W12	Cmp	19.5	20	50% / 55%	18	under
2025 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	1	41% / 43%	3	over
2025 W12	Pass yds	215.5	223	53% / 51%	256	over
2025 W12	Rush att	4.5	5	52% / 45%	5	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	16.5	17	52% / 50%	29	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 26%	1	over
2025 W11	Pass att	33.5	32	41% / 48%	22	under
2025 W11	Cmp	19.5	20	52% / 51%	14	under
2025 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 33%	1	under
2025 W11	Pass yds	208.5	201	46% / 50%	153	under
2025 W11	Rush att	4.5	4	45% / 48%	5	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	17.5	14	43% / 50%	9	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 18%	0	under
2025 W10	Pass att	32.5	33	50% / 51%	23	under
2025 W10	Cmp	19.5	20	55% / 49%	13	under
2025 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	1	32% / 33%	1	under
2025 W10	Pass yds	201.5	200	50% / 50%	158	under
2025 W10	Rush att	4.5	4	50% / 43%	5	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	14.5	14	48% / 51%	35	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 22%	1	over
2025 W9	Pass att	33.5	35	59% / 52%	34	over
2025 W9	Cmp	21.5	22	50% / 51%	23	over
2025 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 48%	0	under
2025 W9	Pass yds	230.5	242	55% / 50%	220	under
2025 W9	Rush att	3.5	4	64% / 52%	9	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	13.5	15	55% / 50%	24	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 21%	0	under
2025 W7	Pass att	34.5	34	46% / 49%	48	over
2025 W7	Cmp	21.5	21	48% / 50%	23	over
2025 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	38% / 41%	1	under
2025 W7	Pass yds	221.5	219	49% / 51%	296	over
2025 W7	Rush att	3.5	4	65% / 53%	2	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	15.5	14	47% / 51%	18	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 22%	0	under
2025 W6	Pass att	33.5	34	53% / 52%	42	over
2025 W6	Cmp	22.5	21	43% / 47%	27	over
2025 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 46%	2	over
2025 W6	Pass yds	230.5	234	51% / 50%	258	over
2025 W6	Rush att	4.5	4	49% / 47%	3	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	18.5	16	42% / 50%	9	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	1	over
2025 W5	Pass att	33.5	33	46% / 52%	25	under
2025 W5	Cmp	21.5	20	41% / 47%	18	under
2025 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	38% / 43%	1	under
2025 W5	Pass yds	219.5	215	47% / 49%	221	over
2025 W5	Rush att	3.5	3	50% / 47%	10	over
2025 W5	Rush yds	11.5	10	46% / 52%	54	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 16%	0	under
2025 W4	Pass att	33.5	33	48% / 49%	31	under
2025 W4	Cmp	20.5	21	51% / 51%	21	over
2025 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	37% / 43%	1	under
2025 W4	Pass yds	229.5	217	44% / 50%	174	under
2025 W4	Rush att	3.5	3	37% / 43%	7	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	10.5	9.2	46% / 50%	7	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 18%	0	under
2025 W3	Pass att	33.5	33	46% / 49%	40	over
2025 W3	Cmp	20.5	21	51% / 51%	20	under
2025 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 43%	0	under
2025 W3	Pass yds	228.5	227	49% / 50%	222	under
2025 W3	Rush att	3.5	3	46% / 43%	2	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	11.5	12	50% / 50%	9	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 17%	0	under
2025 W2	Pass att	34.5	33	45% / 50%	42	over
2025 W2	Cmp	22.5	21	42% / 49%	24	over
2025 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 47%	3	over
2025 W2	Pass yds	244.5	235	46% / 50%	271	over
2025 W2	Rush att	3.5	3	48% / 48%	2	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	12.5	12	50% / 51%	4	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 20%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass att	33.5	–	– / 49%	31	under
2025 W1	Cmp	22.5	–	– / 49%	19	under
2025 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 50%	1	under
2025 W1	Pass yds	240.5	–	– / 50%	178	under
2025 W1	Rush att	3.5	–	– / 57%	4	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	16.5	–	– / 50%	12	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 15%	0	under
2024 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	33% / 38%	0	under
2024 W13	Pass yds	211.5	215	51% / 50%	41	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	13.5	9.9	39% / 49%	6	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 14%	1	over
2024 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 36%	0	under
2024 W9	Pass yds	214.5	200	42% / 50%	169	under
2024 W9	Rush yds	11.5	10	46% / 50%	8	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 17%	1	over
2024 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	41% / 47%	2	over
2024 W8	Pass yds	236.5	215	41% / 50%	308	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	12.5	12	48% / 49%	10	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 20%	0	under
2024 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	45% / 47%	1	under
2024 W7	Pass yds	231.5	236	52% / 50%	193	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	12.5	15	58% / 51%	13	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 18%	0	under
2024 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 43%	2	over
2024 W6	Pass yds	229.5	222	47% / 50%	234	over
2024 W6	Rush yds	10.5	12	55% / 50%	17	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 24%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 46%	2	over
2024 W5	Pass yds	234.5	241	53% / 50%	371	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	14.5	16	54% / 50%	4	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 17%	0	under
2024 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	30% / 38%	2	over
2024 W4	Pass yds	224.5	200	38% / 50%	169	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	14.5	12	43% / 49%	5	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 19%	0	under
2024 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	36% / 42%	1	under
2024 W3	Pass yds	224.5	209	43% / 50%	178	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	17.5	14	42% / 50%	3	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 22%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	40% / 41%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass yds	224.5	224	50% / 49%	220	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	14.5	14	49% / 50%	45	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 21%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 51%	1	under
2024 W1	Pass yds	254.5	238	44% / 51%	162	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	17.5	15	45% / 49%	8	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 16%	0	under
2023 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 46%	2	over
2023 W18	Pass yds	233.5	239	53% / 50%	280	over
2023 W18	Rush yds	11.5	17	64% / 49%	10	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 19%	0	under
2023 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	1	41% / 44%	1	under
2023 W16	Pass yds	253.5	242	43% / 50%	211	under
2023 W16	Rush yds	13.5	16	56% / 50%	29	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 15%	0	under
2023 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	1	36% / 36%	1	under
2023 W15	Pass yds	231.5	219	43% / 47%	264	over
2023 W15	Rush yds	13.5	13	47% / 49%	41	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 14%	0	under
2023 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	1	21% / 32%	3	over
2023 W14	Pass yds	211.5	180	34% / 50%	257	over
2023 W14	Rush yds	5.5	13	74% / 52%	11	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 24%	1	over
2023 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	45% / 51%	2	over
2023 W13	Pass yds	245.5	243	49% / 51%	258	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	15.5	18	56% / 51%	8	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 24%	1	over
2023 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 49%	1	under
2023 W12	Pass yds	255.5	237	43% / 50%	364	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	17.5	17	49% / 50%	0	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	1	over
2023 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 48%	2	over
2023 W11	Pass yds	242.5	221	40% / 50%	262	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	11.5	20	69% / 51%	17	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 18%	0	under
2023 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 44%	0	under
2023 W10	Pass yds	243.5	227	42% / 49%	185	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	15.5	18	54% / 51%	7	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 21%	0	under
2023 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	30% / 42%	1	under
2023 W8	Pass yds	233.5	209	38% / 49%	292	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	18.5	23	59% / 50%	10	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 18%	0	under
2023 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	27% / 38%	1	under
2023 W7	Pass yds	220.5	175	27% / 49%	204	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 24%	0	under
2023 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 51%	2	over
2023 W6	Pass yds	257.5	214	31% / 50%	181	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	17.5	22	58% / 51%	15	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	0	under
2023 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	38% / 45%	1	under
2023 W5	Pass yds	249.5	215	34% / 50%	315	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	16.5	18	55% / 49%	31	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	0	under
2023 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 43%	1	under
2023 W4	Pass yds	242.5	232	46% / 50%	207	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	16.5	16	47% / 50%	42	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 27%	0	under
2023 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	37% / 53%	1	under
2023 W3	Pass yds	245.5	238	47% / 50%	279	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	15.5	20	62% / 51%	12	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 24%	0	under
2023 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	32% / 56%	0	under
2023 W2	Pass yds	260.5	213	28% / 50%	216	under
2023 W2	Rush yds	17.5	15	44% / 51%	26	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 26%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 54%	2	over
2023 W1	Pass yds	259.5	–	– / 50%	241	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	11.5	–	– / 52%	21	over

Our calls

2026 W5 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Over 229.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Over 229.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W4 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 258.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 258.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Over 223.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 223.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 223.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 231.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 247.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 250.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 225.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 18.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 218.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 218.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 218.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 218.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 219.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 201.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 201.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 21.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 221.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 230.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology