TE · ARI · 174 lines since 2023
Trey McBride Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Trey McBride, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 50% — we make it 40%
- Line 23.5 yds longest rec — we project 23 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 84.5 rec yds — we project 74 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 7.5 receptions — we project 8 (P(over) 51%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 28, under 22 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 34, under 16 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 18, under 36 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 4–5 · model 31–52 · Pre-snap motion 6–9 · Missed tackles 4–5 · Dome team outdoors 7–8 · Red-zone defense 1–0 · Starters out on defense 3–3 · Short week 1–0 · Play action 3–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 23.5 | 23 | 47% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 84.5 | 74 | 41% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 51% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 54 | 40% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 51 | 34% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 32% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 44 | 34% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 36% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 58 | 50% / 51% | 95 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 49% / 44% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 18 | 36% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 52 | 34% / 50% | 65 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 49% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 58 | 30% / 50% | 76 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 31% / 56% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 56% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 66 | 44% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 40% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 19.5 | 18 | 44% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 52 | 36% / 50% | 134 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 50% / 54% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 21.5 | 22 | 53% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 78.5 | 71 | 43% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 52% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 56% / 53% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 64 | 45% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 57% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 71 | 46% / 50% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 44% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 53% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 77.5 | 73 | 46% / 50% | 115 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 46% / 46% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 47% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 52 | 38% / 51% | 127 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 44% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 55% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 58 | 41% / 51% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 44% / 57% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 54 | 41% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 51% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 46 | 40% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 37% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 58 | 47% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 48% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 54 | 40% / 50% | 52 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 57 | 44% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 44% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 58% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 59 | 46% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 45% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 68 | 51% / 50% | 61 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 51% / 47% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 61 | 43% / 51% | 65 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 46% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 51 | 36% / 49% | 123 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 39% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 70 | 49% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 47% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 65 | 53% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 44% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 62 | 45% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 56 | 48% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 55% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 49 | 46% / 50% | 133 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 58% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 43 | 38% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 50 | 44% / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 37 | 37% / 50% | 124 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 43% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 39 | 36% / 52% | 51 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 38 | 37% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 30 | 30% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 42 | 39% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 37 | 35% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 33 | 33% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 43 | 37% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 43 | 26% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 46% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 47 | 34% / 52% | 31 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 42 | 38% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 35 | 30% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 39 | 32% / 51% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 29% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 37 | 31% / 53% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 31 | 35% / 52% | 131 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 46% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 20 | 21% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 15 | 16% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 21% / 53% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 11 | 26% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 44% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.0 | 39% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 63.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 67.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 61.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 61.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 68.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 68.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 81.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 81.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 81.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 81.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 72.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 72.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 78.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 78.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 78.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 68.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 68.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 64.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 64.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 69.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 69.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 69.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 64.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 62.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology