WR · WAS · 74 lines since 2023
Treylon Burks Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Treylon Burks, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 19% — we make it 24%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 13 (18 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 24 (27 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: model 16–10 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Starters out on defense 2–1 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 19% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 47% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 12% | – | void |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 42% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 11.5 | 7.7 | 41% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.9 | 44% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | – | void |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.6 | 47% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.2 | 47% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 66% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 7.2 | 52% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 7.4 | 55% / 48% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 7.9 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 50% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 19 | 35% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 17 | 33% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 39% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 36% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 16 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 67% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 32 | 64% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 36 | 53% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 28 | 34% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 37.5 | – | – / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 47% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 23.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 13.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Over 6.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Under 24.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W8 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W3 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W2 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology