WR · DEN · 115 lines since 2023
Troy Franklin Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Troy Franklin, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 13%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 18.5 rec yds — we project 17 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 53%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 11, under 17 (28 graded)
- Receptions over 15, under 13 (28 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 30 (37 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 24–22 · Pre-snap motion 1–2 · Missed tackles 1–3 · Short week 2–2 · Starters out on defense 3–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 46% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 17 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 21 | 78% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 2 | 85% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 12.5 | 21 | 75% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 42 | 75% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 68% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 62% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 47 | 60% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 22 | 71% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 49 | 71% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 74% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 62% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 40 | 56% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 59% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 44 | 54% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 51% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 47 | 46% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 44 | 52% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 61% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 51 | 53% / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 50% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 38 | 46% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 16.5 | 22 | 66% / 52% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 44 | 58% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 60% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 35 | 53% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 52% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 38 | 47% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 37 | 48% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 39 | 43% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 47% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 38 | 45% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 13.5 | 22 | 72% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 40 | 74% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 24 | 58% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 21 | 54% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 22 | 57% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 20 | 59% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 22 | 61% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 50% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 20 | 42% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 25 | 44% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 15 | 38% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 39.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 41.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 47.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 35.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 40.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 18.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 18.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 15.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology