TE · GB · 129 lines since 2023
Tucker Kraft Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tucker Kraft, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 34%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 49.5 rec yds — we project 31 (P(over) 30%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 30%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 12 (36 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 16 (35 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 32 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 2–1 · model 28–38 · Short week 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 3–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Missed tackles 2–3 · Freezing 0–3 · Middle of the field 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 31% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 16 | 43% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 31 | 30% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 28 | 36% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 34 | 38% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 30 | 35% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 30 | 34% / 49% | 65 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 53% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 42 | 38% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 55% / 49% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 44% / 48% | 143 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 35 | 37% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 40 | 40% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 53% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 43% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 45% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 17 | 45% / 48% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 29 | 35% / 51% | 124 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 56% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 38 | 47% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 27 | 43% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 28 | 42% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 28 | 43% / 48% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 39% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 32 | 48% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 43% / 51% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 23 | 39% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 25% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 24 | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 43% / 48% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 27 | 39% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 31% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 25 | 36% / 49% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 27 | 36% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 24 | 34% / 51% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 17 | 41% / 49% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 44% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 42% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17 | 56% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 21 | 39% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 17 | 22% / 49% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 20% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 16 | 20% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 15% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 11 | 18% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 1 | 9% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 8.1 | 15% / 49% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 0.8 | 7% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 6% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 0 | 5% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 0 | 3% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 45.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 46.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 51.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 40.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 31.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 31.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology