RB · TEN · 206 lines since 2023

Tyjae Spears Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Tyjae Spears, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 14% — we make it 10%
Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 5.2 (P(over) 36%)
Line 10.5 rec yds — we project 6.7 (P(over) 36%)
Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 48%)
Line 28.5 rush + rec yds — we project 21 (P(over) 34%)
Line 15.5 rush yds — we project 12 (P(over) 38%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 19, under 26 (45 graded)
Receiving yards over 21, under 23 (44 graded)
Receptions over 25, under 17 (42 graded)
Anytime TD over 7, under 39 (46 graded)
Rush attempts over 3, under 7 (10 graded)
Longest reception over 8, under 4 (12 graded)

Our calls on him: model 60–46 · Starters out on defense 5–4 · Missed tackles 8–12 · Big underdog (6.5+) 4–1 · Pre-snap motion 3–3 · Light boxes 2–2 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Tyjae Spears prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 14%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	7.5	5.2	36% / 46%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	10.5	6.7	36% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	1.5	1	48% / 60%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	28.5	21	34% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	15.5	12	38% / 49%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 14%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	12.5	6.6	30% / 50%	-1	under
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	1	24% / 42%	1	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	14.5	13	45% / 50%	7	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 18%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	11.5	7.8	39% / 50%	0	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	16.5	16	49% / 50%	5	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 22%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	16.5	8.3	25% / 50%	29	over
2026 W2	Rec	2.5	2	31% / 52%	2	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	16.5	16	49% / 50%	41	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 28%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	16.5	14	44% / 50%	12	under
2026 W1	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 50%	2	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	25.5	26	50% / 51%	12	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 22%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	10.5	8.2	36% / 49%	9	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	18.5	14	38% / 50%	9	under
2025 W18	Rec	3.5	3	35% / 41%	7	over
2025 W18	Rush yds	14.5	15	50% / 50%	18	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 25%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	10.5	7.4	33% / 48%	-1	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	17.5	11	32% / 51%	-1	under
2025 W17	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 52%	1	under
2025 W17	Rush att	7.5	6	34% / 52%	6	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	24.5	20	41% / 52%	2	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 26%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	10.5	7.1	31% / 48%	34	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	16.5	11	34% / 50%	53	over
2025 W16	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 56%	5	over
2025 W16	Rush att	4.5	5	55% / 49%	13	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	14.5	15	51% / 50%	52	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 27%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	10.5	7.4	33% / 52%	2	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	20.5	11	27% / 51%	2	under
2025 W15	Rec	3.5	2	26% / 46%	2	under
2025 W15	Rush att	5.5	5	41% / 49%	3	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	16.5	14	42% / 49%	34	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 20%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	9.5	6.0	28% / 50%	24	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	17.5	9.1	26% / 49%	28	over
2025 W14	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 52%	2	under
2025 W14	Rush att	5.5	5	48% / 52%	8	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	18.5	14	40% / 50%	19	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 26%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	11.5	7.8	31% / 48%	10	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	18.5	12	34% / 50%	25	over
2025 W13	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 57%	6	over
2025 W13	Rush att	6.5	5	33% / 47%	2	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	21.5	16	38% / 50%	-1	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 26%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	10.5	6.9	28% / 50%	12	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	18.5	11	29% / 51%	21	over
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 56%	4	over
2025 W12	Rush att	6.5	6	38% / 51%	3	under
2025 W12	Rush yds	23.5	16	33% / 50%	4	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 27%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	9.5	6.7	34% / 52%	15	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	16.5	9.4	31% / 50%	31	over
2025 W11	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 51%	5	over
2025 W11	Rush att	8.5	6	26% / 45%	4	under
2025 W11	Rush yds	29.5	21	34% / 50%	3	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 29%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	10.5	6.4	28% / 49%	26	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	14.5	9.0	32% / 50%	36	over
2025 W9	Rec	2.5	2	32% / 49%	3	over
2025 W9	Rush att	7.5	5	25% / 54%	7	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	27.5	18	32% / 50%	26	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 24%	1	over
2025 W8	Long rec	9.5	7.1	37% / 51%	17	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	14.5	11	40% / 51%	23	over
2025 W8	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 48%	3	over
2025 W8	Rush att	5.5	5	40% / 48%	9	over
2025 W8	Rush yds	20.5	14	34% / 50%	59	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 24%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	8.5	6.0	35% / 52%	11	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	11.5	8.0	38% / 52%	18	over
2025 W7	Rec	1.5	2	53% / 62%	3	over
2025 W7	Rush att	5.5	5	43% / 57%	5	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	21.5	17	39% / 49%	22	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 25%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	5.5	4.6	45% / 49%	9	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	5.5	5.2	49% / 50%	19	over
2025 W6	Rec	1.5	1	37% / 37%	4	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	19.5	17	44% / 50%	31	over
2025 W5	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	0	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	18.5	15	40% / 50%	14	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 49%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	22.5	13	30% / 50%	8	under
2024 W17	Rec	3.5	2	24% / 48%	3	under
2024 W17	Rush yds	61.5	28	10% / 50%	95	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 32%	1	over
2024 W16	Rec yds	11.5	12	51% / 49%	39	over
2024 W16	Rec	1.5	2	62% / 59%	3	over
2024 W16	Rush yds	22.5	24	53% / 50%	27	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 24%	1	over
2024 W15	Rec yds	10.5	8.3	42% / 49%	87	over
2024 W15	Rec	1.5	2	53% / 56%	6	over
2024 W15	Rush yds	20.5	23	53% / 50%	5	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 20%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	8.5	9.3	53% / 51%	2	under
2024 W14	Rec	1.5	2	52% / 51%	1	under
2024 W14	Rush yds	23.5	20	43% / 52%	21	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 25%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	11.5	8.9	42% / 50%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	2	31% / 39%	0	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	22.5	16	37% / 50%	3	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 24%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	11.5	11	48% / 50%	8	under
2024 W11	Rec	1.5	2	66% / 61%	2	over
2024 W11	Rush yds	24.5	18	40% / 49%	0	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 23%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	9.5	9.8	51% / 49%	4	under
2024 W10	Rec	1.5	2	60% / 55%	3	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	23.5	17	34% / 51%	47	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 25%	–	void
2024 W6	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 33%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	14.5	13	45% / 50%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 46%	0	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	34.5	27	37% / 50%	27	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 21%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	12.5	10	43% / 52%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 39%	2	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	25.5	17	30% / 49%	39	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 28%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	10.5	8.9	45% / 50%	54	over
2024 W3	Rec	1.5	2	54% / 57%	4	over
2024 W3	Rush yds	26.5	19	35% / 50%	7	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 31%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	16.5	9.9	33% / 50%	11	under
2024 W2	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 51%	2	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	24.5	21	43% / 50%	20	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 27%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	15.5	12	42% / 49%	11	under
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 47%	4	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	34.5	19	23% / 50%	21	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 26%	1	over
2023 W18	Rec yds	21.5	18	42% / 50%	41	over
2023 W18	Rec	2.5	3	58% / 60%	3	over
2023 W18	Rush yds	27.5	27	50% / 50%	25	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 23%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	18.5	17	46% / 50%	29	over
2023 W17	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 57%	4	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	30.5	30	49% / 49%	0	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 23%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	15.5	16	51% / 49%	27	over
2023 W16	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 50%	5	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	28.5	32	56% / 50%	40	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 24%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	15.5	18	56% / 50%	7	under
2023 W15	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 48%	1	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	23.5	32	64% / 50%	30	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 19%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	15.5	11	36% / 50%	89	over
2023 W14	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 48%	6	over
2023 W14	Rush yds	20.5	17	43% / 51%	29	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 24%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	14.5	13	45% / 50%	13	under
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 42%	4	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	24.5	19	39% / 52%	75	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 25%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	16.5	13	41% / 50%	1	under
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 51%	1	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	23.5	22	47% / 50%	6	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	19.5	15	39% / 49%	12	under
2023 W11	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 58%	2	under
2023 W11	Rush yds	20.5	17	42% / 49%	14	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 24%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	15.5	14	45% / 50%	42	over
2023 W10	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 48%	4	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	19.5	19	48% / 49%	18	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 23%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	14.5	12	44% / 51%	4	under
2023 W9	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 42%	4	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	20.5	20	48% / 51%	18	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 27%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	14.5	12	43% / 49%	9	under
2023 W8	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 40%	3	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	28.5	22	37% / 50%	27	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 29%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	16.5	15	46% / 49%	48	over
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 52%	1	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	25.5	22	44% / 50%	15	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 30%	1	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	14.5	15	53% / 51%	35	over
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 43%	4	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	24.5	22	47% / 50%	34	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 27%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	12.5	13	51% / 50%	18	over
2023 W4	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 40%	3	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	19.5	21	54% / 51%	40	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 20%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	8.5	9.3	53% / 49%	3	under
2023 W3	Rush yds	20.5	20	49% / 51%	6	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 20%	0	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 11%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	5.5	–	– / 50%	1	under
2023 W1	Rec	1.5	–	– / 37%	1	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	18.5	–	– / 48%	27	over

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 14.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 24.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 5.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 16.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 18.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 21.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 23.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 29.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 29.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 7.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology