RB · ARI · 200 lines since 2023

Tyler Allgeier Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Tyler Allgeier, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 40%
Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 6.6 (P(over) 40%)
Line 9.5 rec yds — we project 9.0 (P(over) 48%)
Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 53%)
Line 7.5 rush attempts — we project 8 (P(over) 54%)
Line 41.5 rush + rec yds — we project 43 (P(over) 53%)
Line 27.5 rush yds — we project 31 (P(over) 56%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 24, under 31 (55 graded)
Receiving yards over 11, under 19 (30 graded)
Receptions over 13, under 14 (27 graded)
Anytime TD over 15, under 40 (55 graded)
Rush attempts over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
Longest reception over 3, under 6 (9 graded)
Rush + rec yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)

Our calls on him: model 48–33 · Missed tackles 14–14 · Starters out on defense 7–7 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–3 · Dome team outdoors 12–4 · Pre-snap motion 4–4 · Short week 2–0 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Tyler Allgeier prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 31%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	8.5	6.6	40% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	9.5	9.0	48% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	1.5	2	53% / 57%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	7.5	8	54% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	41.5	43	53% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	27.5	31	56% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 26%	1	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	21.5	21	48% / 50%	42	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 36%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	7.5	4.7	40% / 50%	10	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	33.5	26	38% / 51%	-1	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 32%	0	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	34.5	22	27% / 50%	10	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 31%	0	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	34.5	27	37% / 50%	61	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 39%	0	under
2025 W18	Rush att	8.5	9	50% / 50%	7	under
2025 W18	Rush+rec yds	42.5	37	43% / 49%	19	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	32.5	33	51% / 50%	16	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 32%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	4.5	0.6	32% / 49%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	4.5	0.6	34% / 49%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec	1.5	1	17% / 35%	0	under
2025 W17	Rush att	7.5	8	50% / 47%	10	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	24.5	27	55% / 51%	23	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 41%	0	under
2025 W16	Long rec	2.5	0	41% / 49%	-6	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	1.5	0	45% / 51%	-6	under
2025 W16	Rec	0.5	0	49% / 58%	1	over
2025 W16	Rush att	7.5	8	51% / 54%	16	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	30.5	30	50% / 51%	79	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 30%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	6.5	2.4	30% / 51%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	6.5	2.5	34% / 50%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec	1.5	1	25% / 40%	0	under
2025 W15	Rush att	7.5	7	49% / 51%	2	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	27.5	24	43% / 51%	18	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 29%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	5.5	1.5	31% / 49%	21	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	5.5	1.6	34% / 51%	33	over
2025 W14	Rec	1.5	1	21% / 40%	2	over
2025 W14	Rush att	6.5	7	51% / 51%	11	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	22.5	21	46% / 50%	34	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 31%	1	over
2025 W13	Long rec	1.5	0.7	47% / 51%	31	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	1.5	0.8	47% / 50%	35	over
2025 W13	Rec	0.5	1	53% / 58%	2	over
2025 W13	Rush att	7.5	8	56% / 55%	8	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	29.5	29	49% / 50%	20	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 35%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	2.5	0.8	43% / 50%	5	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	2.5	0.8	43% / 49%	5	over
2025 W12	Rec	0.5	1	53% / 61%	1	over
2025 W12	Rush att	7.5	7	46% / 50%	12	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	25.5	25	49% / 51%	44	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 36%	1	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	31.5	29	45% / 50%	10	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 24%	1	over
2025 W10	Rush att	5.5	6	56% / 51%	11	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	20.5	21	51% / 50%	57	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 27%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	0.5	0	48% / 47%	0	under
2025 W9	Rec yds	0.5	0	48% / 47%	0	under
2025 W9	Rec	0.5	0	49% / 52%	0	under
2025 W9	Rush att	6.5	6	47% / 56%	2	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	24.5	20	40% / 50%	6	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 42%	1	over
2025 W8	Rush att	9.5	7	31% / 50%	4	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	40.5	30	35% / 51%	4	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 33%	0	under
2025 W7	Rush att	8.5	8	44% / 47%	4	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	32.5	30	46% / 50%	16	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 35%	1	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	10.5	0	17% / 20%	6	under
2025 W6	Rush att	7.5	7	49% / 55%	10	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	32.5	28	43% / 49%	32	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 26%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	2.5	0	34% / 49%	0	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	1.5	0	38% / 51%	0	under
2025 W4	Rec	0.5	0	43% / 54%	0	under
2025 W4	Rush att	7.5	7	49% / 51%	16	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	30.5	30	50% / 51%	51	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 30%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	0.5	0	40% / 48%	0	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	0.5	0	40% / 47%	0	under
2025 W3	Rush att	10.5	9	38% / 49%	1	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	43.5	40	46% / 49%	4	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 22%	1	over
2025 W2	Rush att	6.5	7	59% / 50%	16	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	26.5	26	49% / 50%	76	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 28%	0	under
2025 W1	Rush att	6.5	8	65% / 48%	10	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	24.5	33	64% / 50%	24	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 33%	0	under
2024 W18	Rush yds	34.5	40	59% / 50%	52	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 27%	0	under
2024 W17	Rush yds	30.5	32	53% / 50%	19	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 33%	0	under
2024 W16	Rush yds	37.5	41	55% / 50%	22	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 33%	0	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	27.5	38	67% / 52%	43	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 24%	1	over
2024 W14	Rush yds	18.5	27	66% / 51%	63	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 29%	0	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	28.5	34	58% / 50%	16	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 24%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	0.5	0	44% / 51%	-1	under
2024 W11	Rec	0.5	0	46% / 54%	1	over
2024 W11	Rush yds	30.5	36	58% / 50%	0	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 37%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	2.5	1.0	45% / 51%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec	0.5	1	53% / 61%	0	under
2024 W10	Rush yds	35.5	39	55% / 50%	59	over
2024 W9	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 40%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	4.5	0.9	39% / 50%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec	0.5	1	52% / 67%	0	under
2024 W9	Rush yds	42.5	47	55% / 51%	18	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 35%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	2.5	2.5	50% / 51%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec	0.5	1	60% / 61%	0	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	38.5	36	47% / 50%	33	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 43%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	6.5	2.7	37% / 49%	9	over
2024 W7	Rec	1.5	1	23% / 39%	1	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	39.5	48	60% / 51%	36	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 40%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	5.5	3.7	44% / 51%	3	under
2024 W6	Rec	1.5	1	26% / 40%	1	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	37.5	38	51% / 50%	105	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 30%	0	under
2024 W5	Rec yds	3.5	1.5	42% / 53%	13	over
2024 W5	Rec	0.5	1	55% / 63%	3	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	37.5	36	47% / 50%	12	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 26%	0	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	27.5	32	58% / 50%	60	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 23%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	1.5	1.5	50% / 50%	0	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	24.5	32	63% / 51%	32	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 24%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	0.5	1.0	52% / 46%	12	over
2024 W2	Rec	0.5	1	53% / 51%	1	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	19.5	28	67% / 49%	53	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 29%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	0.5	4.2	62% / 51%	0	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	27.5	38	66% / 51%	21	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 30%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	1.5	0	45% / 52%	10	over
2023 W18	Rec	0.5	0	49% / 56%	3	over
2023 W18	Rush yds	31.5	32	50% / 51%	24	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 27%	1	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	30.5	33	54% / 52%	13	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 33%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	0.5	0.2	49% / 50%	19	over
2023 W16	Rec	0.5	1	50% / 55%	1	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	36.5	38	52% / 50%	69	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 25%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec	0.5	0	48% / 43%	1	over
2023 W15	Rush yds	33.5	32	47% / 49%	45	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 29%	0	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	30.5	34	55% / 49%	40	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 25%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	0.5	1	57% / 47%	0	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	32.5	35	54% / 52%	26	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 36%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	3.5	3.2	49% / 50%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec	0.5	1	63% / 62%	0	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	34.5	31	44% / 51%	64	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 40%	0	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	43.5	41	46% / 50%	31	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 34%	1	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	3.5	4.3	53% / 49%	-9	under
2023 W9	Rec	0.5	1	66% / 59%	2	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	39.5	36	44% / 50%	39	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 26%	0	under
2023 W8	Rush yds	35.5	34	48% / 51%	31	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 25%	0	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	37.5	28	35% / 51%	59	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 37%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	3.5	2.5	45% / 49%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec	0.5	1	59% / 62%	0	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	38.5	30	35% / 50%	51	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 36%	0	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	35.5	28	38% / 50%	40	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 33%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	7.5	5.8	44% / 49%	-4	under
2023 W4	Rec	1.5	1	42% / 42%	1	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	36.5	28	36% / 51%	16	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 43%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	5.5	4.8	48% / 51%	17	over
2023 W3	Rec	1.5	1	38% / 38%	2	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	49.5	32	26% / 50%	12	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 40%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	7.5	14	69% / 50%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec	1.5	2.5	73% / 46%	0	under
2023 W2	Rush yds	50.5	38	35% / 50%	48	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 34%	1	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	3.5	–	– / 49%	19	over
2023 W1	Rec	0.5	–	– / 61%	3	over
2023 W1	Rush yds	34.5	–	– / 50%	75	over

Our calls

2026 W3 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 34.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Under 42.5 rush + rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 32.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 7.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 27.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 27.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 27.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 27.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 29.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 29.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 25.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 31.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 31.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 5.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 20.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 24.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 9.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 40.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 32.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 32.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 43.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 43.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 43.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Over 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology