RB · DEN · 34 lines since 2023
Tyler Badie Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tyler Badie, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 11%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 21 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 4–4
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 3.5 | 3.9 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 4.3 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 3.5 | 4.1 | 52% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 4.6 | 54% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.0 | 40% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 47% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.7 | 43% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.3 | 47% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | – | void |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 12 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology