TE · DET · 125 lines since 2023
Tyler Conklin Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tyler Conklin, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 19, under 18 (37 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 13 (37 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 40 (44 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 19–20 · Dome team outdoors 1–0 · Starters out on defense 3–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Freezing 0–1 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Short week 1–2 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Explosive plays 1–0 · Pre-snap motion 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | – | void |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | – | void |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 5.5 | 8.2 | 57% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 10 | 59% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 72% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 9.5 | 14 | 64% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 20 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 9.5 | 12 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 54% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 24 | 61% / 49% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 76% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 20 | 48% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 19 | 40% / 48% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 18 | 46% / 51% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 21 | 52% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 47% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 24 | 49% / 49% | -3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 46% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 26 | 48% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 23 | 49% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 53% / 49% | 93 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 44% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 28 | 49% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 64% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 25 | 45% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 54% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 47% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 25 | 52% / 51% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 24 | 54% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 24 | 48% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 28 | 55% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 69% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 43% / 49% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 28 | 54% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 27 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 32 | 57% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 71% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 27 | 50% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 26 | 47% / 49% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 70% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 24 | 55% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 70% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 12 | 28% / 49% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | – | – / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 48% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W4 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 21.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 24.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 20.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 24.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 24.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 23.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 20.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 20.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 26.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Over 31.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W6 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W6 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W6 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W5 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W5 Over 27.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W5 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W4 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W3 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W2 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology