Edgehalla

TE · LAR · 103 lines since 2023

Tyler Higbee Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Tyler Higbee, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 21%
  • Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 65%)
  • Line 23.5 rec yds — we project 33 (P(over) 62%)
  • Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 60%)

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 15, under 13 (28 graded)
  • Receptions over 15, under 12 (27 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 7, under 25 (32 graded)
  • Longest reception over 5, under 4 (9 graded)

Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 2–2 · Dome team outdoors 3–7 · model 21–26 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Short week 0–1 · Explosive plays 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Tyler Higbee prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 29%–…
2026 W5Long rec12.51865% / 49%–…
2026 W5Rec yds23.53362% / 50%–…
2026 W5Rec2.5360% / 52%–…
2026 W4Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 26%0under
2026 W4Rec yds31.52542% / 50%67over
2026 W4Rec3.5340% / 45%5over
2026 W3Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 12%1over
2026 W2Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 17%0under
2026 W2Rec yds12.51757% / 49%0under
2026 W2Rec1.5257% / 43%0under
2026 W1Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 17%0under
2026 W1Rec yds15.52971% / 51%12under
2026 W1Rec1.5378% / 55%2over
2025 W18Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 27%1over
2025 W11Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 21%0under
2025 W11Long rec12.51557% / 50%23over
2025 W11Rec yds21.52555% / 50%23over
2025 W11Rec2.5350% / 57%1under
2025 W10Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 24%0under
2025 W10Long rec12.51456% / 48%15over
2025 W10Rec yds20.52353% / 51%33over
2025 W10Rec2.5245% / 48%3over
2025 W9Any TD–31% TD chance31% / 21%1over
2025 W9Long rec10.51566% / 50%8under
2025 W9Rec yds15.52564% / 50%13under
2025 W9Rec1.5268% / 58%3over
2025 W7Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 25%0under
2025 W7Long rec14.51654% / 48%9under
2025 W7Rec yds27.52749% / 50%19under
2025 W7Rec3.5338% / 40%3under
2025 W6Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 24%1over
2025 W6Long rec11.51354% / 48%24over
2025 W6Rec yds16.51853% / 50%40over
2025 W6Rec2.5236% / 36%4over
2025 W5Long rec10.51152% / 49%–void
2025 W4Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 21%0under
2025 W4Long rec10.51153% / 49%16over
2025 W4Rec yds14.51653% / 50%25over
2025 W4Rec1.5255% / 57%2over
2025 W3Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 20%0under
2025 W3Long rec12.51145% / 48%0under
2025 W3Rec yds21.51742% / 51%0under
2025 W3Rec2.5241% / 49%0under
2025 W2Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 21%0under
2025 W2Long rec11.51250% / 49%20over
2025 W2Rec yds18.51747% / 50%37over
2025 W2Rec2.5236% / 42%4over
2025 W1Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 22%0under
2025 W1Long rec12.51559% / 51%0under
2025 W1Rec yds22.52655% / 50%0under
2025 W1Rec2.5352% / 51%0under
2024 W18Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 12%1over
2024 W17Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 18%0under
2024 W17Rec yds14.52059% / 51%9under
2024 W17Rec1.5260% / 55%2over
2024 W16Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 14%1over
2024 W15Any TD––– / 20%–void
2024 W9Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 18%–void
2023 W17Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 24%0under
2023 W17Rec yds24.52653% / 50%62over
2023 W17Rec2.5351% / 52%6over
2023 W16Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 26%0under
2023 W16Rec yds24.52551% / 50%30over
2023 W16Rec2.5247% / 53%3over
2023 W15Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 29%0under
2023 W15Rec yds26.52649% / 50%36over
2023 W15Rec2.5245% / 57%4over
2023 W13Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 23%0under
2023 W13Rec yds25.51838% / 47%35over
2023 W13Rec2.5241% / 56%2under
2023 W12Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 24%1over
2023 W12Rec yds25.52245% / 49%29over
2023 W12Rec2.5241% / 55%5over
2023 W11Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 24%0under
2023 W11Rec yds27.52647% / 50%17under
2023 W11Rec3.5229% / 39%1under
2023 W9Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 19%0under
2023 W9Rec yds20.52355% / 50%0under
2023 W8Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 22%0under
2023 W8Rec yds23.51942% / 50%45over
2023 W8Rec2.5242% / 57%5over
2023 W7Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 26%0under
2023 W7Rec yds27.52444% / 50%7under
2023 W7Rec3.5230% / 39%1under
2023 W6Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 30%0under
2023 W6Rec yds33.52437% / 50%18under
2023 W6Rec3.5227% / 49%2under
2023 W5Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 28%0under
2023 W5Rec yds38.53443% / 48%20under
2023 W5Rec4.5329% / 42%2under
2023 W4Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 28%0under
2023 W4Rec yds30.52239% / 50%64over
2023 W4Rec4.5320% / 40%5over
2023 W3Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 30%0under
2023 W3Rec yds31.52032% / 50%71over
2023 W3Rec3.5230% / 54%5over
2023 W2Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 29%0under
2023 W2Rec yds41.51714% / 48%12under
2023 W2Rec4.5215% / 53%3under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 34%0under
2023 W1Rec yds45.5–– / 49%49over
2023 W1Rec5.5–– / 42%3under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W9 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 27.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 21.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W2 Under 18.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W1 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 24.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 26.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W13 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W6 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W4 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology