QB · NO · 85 lines since 2023
Tyler Shough Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tyler Shough, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 23% — we make it 15%
- Line 35.5 pass attempts — we project 35 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 22.5 completions — we project 23 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 40%)
- Line 236.5 pass yds — we project 217 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 11.5 rush yds — we project 14 (P(over) 57%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 11, under 2 (13 graded)
- Passing TDs over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
- Rushing yards over 7, under 6 (13 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 10 (13 graded)
- Pass attempts over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Completions over 6, under 3 (9 graded)
- Rush attempts over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: model 17–19 · Dome team outdoors 1–4 · High total (48.5+) 1–0 · Low total (40.5 or less) 2–4 · Starters out on defense 2–1 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Pressure 5–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–4 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 35.5 | 35 | 47% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 22.5 | 23 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 37% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 217 | 41% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 14 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 258.5 | 275 | 57% / 50% | 286 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 239 | 44% / 50% | 255 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 19 | 61% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 33% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 218 | 43% / 50% | 252 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 12 | 40% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 224 | 42% / 50% | 410 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 15 | 42% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 54% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 55% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 212 | 43% / 50% | 259 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 14 | 44% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 47% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 55% / 53% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 211 | 45% / 51% | 333 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 52% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 213 | 49% / 50% | 308 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 26% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 19 | 43% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 53% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 50% / 47% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 205.5 | 197 | 45% / 49% | 272 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 22% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 12 | 31% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 54% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 60% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 198 | 41% / 50% | 144 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 7.1 | 31% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 55% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 209.5 | 193 | 41% / 51% | 239 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 6.4 | 29% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 60% / 52% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 17.5 | 20 | 70% / 52% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 202.5 | 212 | 55% / 50% | 243 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 4.2 | 34% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 50% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 46% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 60% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 179.5 | 177 | 49% / 50% | 282 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 3.5 | 1 | 6% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 1.7 | 18% / 50% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 34.5 | 35 | 51% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 60% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 58% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 194.5 | 187 | 46% / 50% | 176 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 3.5 | 1 | 6% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 1.6 | 7% / 50% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 258.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 253.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 231.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 231.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 240.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 240.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 222.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 222.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 222.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 214.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 214.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 205.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 33.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 216.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 216.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 209.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 209.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 202.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 179.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 179.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 179.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 179.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 34.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology