TE · IND · 81 lines since 2023
Tyler Warren Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tyler Warren, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 30% — we make it 25%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 43.5 rec yds — we project 37 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 5 (P(over) 51%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 7, under 13 (20 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 12 (20 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 0–2 · Middle of the field 1–2 · model 24–14 · Dome team outdoors 5–0 · Pre-snap motion 3–5 · Missed tackles 1–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 37 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 45 | 36% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 56% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 34 | 34% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 54% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 31 | 36% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 48 | 51% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 57% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 42 | 43% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 59% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 38 | 51% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 30 | 42% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 59% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 45% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 40 | 39% / 48% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 56% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 45 | 42% / 51% | 45 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 41 | 47% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 57% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 50 | 41% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 62% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 51 | 45% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 29% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 49 | 42% / 51% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 57% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 48 | 47% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 54% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 51 | 42% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 56% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 45% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 42 | 46% / 51% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 50% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 40 | 45% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 16.5 | – | – / 48% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 36.5 | – | – / 52% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 56% | 7 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 57.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 57.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 50.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 52.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 59.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 46.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 46.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology