RB · NYG · 145 lines since 2023
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tyrone Tracy Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 10% — we make it 11%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 14, under 14 (28 graded)
- Receiving yards over 11, under 16 (27 graded)
- Receptions over 13, under 14 (27 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 27 (36 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 6 (13 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 45–52 · Starters out on defense 4–0 · Missed tackles 8–8 · Pre-snap motion 2–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–2 · Short week 3–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 20 | 60% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 55% / 47% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 17 | 56% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 13.5 | 13 | 43% / 53% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 52 | 40% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.7 | 51% / 51% | -5 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | -5 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 52% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 58 | 47% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.1 | 44% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 9.6 | 40% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 13.5 | 13 | 47% / 52% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 48 | 43% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.1 | 48% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 13.5 | 13 | 50% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 55 | 54% / 52% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.6 | 37% / 51% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 10 | 30% / 50% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 46 | 47% / 49% | 36 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.4 | 40% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 11 | 36% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 42 | 47% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 6.7 | 31% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.2 | 28% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 12.5 | 11 | 36% / 47% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 36 | 39% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.2 | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 10 | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 11.5 | 9 | 26% / 46% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 31 | 30% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 11.5 | 6.8 | 32% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 9.1 | 27% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 14.5 | 7 | 4% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 26 | 16% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.0 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10.0 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 6.5 | 8 | 63% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 24 | 56% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.4 | 45% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 6.5 | 10 | 82% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 36 | 73% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.5 | 46% / 52% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 11 | 38% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 13.5 | 12 | 39% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 43 | 37% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.5 | 55% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 16 | 61% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 13.5 | 17 | 66% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 64 | 58% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 11 | 37% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 47 | 38% / 53% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 12 | 35% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 47 | 48% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 8.5 | 30% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 46 | 44% / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 9.6 | 26% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 42 | 47% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.4 | 31% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 54 | 39% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.2 | 37% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 55 | 42% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 6.9 | 34% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 45 | 30% / 50% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.2 | 39% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 60 | 38% / 52% | 103 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 5.5 | 26% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 19% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 33 | 17% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 5.6 | 30% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 17 | 24% / 50% | 145 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.2 | 46% / 52% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 37 | 57% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 4.4 | 22% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 12% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 37 | 25% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 4.3 | 22% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 14% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 21 | 12% / 50% | 129 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0.6 | 32% / 52% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 18% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 6.5 | 34% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 60.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 60.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 60.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 60.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 60.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 60.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 52.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 48.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 44.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 12.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 42.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 42.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 42.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 44.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 44.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 21.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology