QB · CHI · 27 lines since 2023
Tyson Bagent Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tyson Bagent, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 16% — we make it 6%
- Line 31.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 20.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 216.5 pass yds — we project 219 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 3.5 rush attempts — we project 2 (P(over) 12%)
- Line 11.5 rush yds — we project 3.9 (P(over) 24%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
- Passing TDs over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
- Rushing yards over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 0–1 · Low total (40.5 or less) 2–0 · Short week 1–0 · model 3–3 · Pressure 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 16% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 31.5 | 31 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 47% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 219 | 51% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 3.5 | 2 | 12% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 3.9 | 24% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 200.5 | – | – / 49% | 268 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 14.5 | – | – / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 186.5 | 178 | 46% / 50% | 162 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 15 | 33% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 58% / 63% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 187.5 | 174 | 43% / 50% | 220 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 4.8 | 20% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 198.5 | 190 | 45% / 50% | 232 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 3.2 | 24% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 181.5 | 177 | 48% / 51% | 162 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 1.2 | 14% / 51% | 24 | over |
Our calls
- 2023 W10 Over 186.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Under 186.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2023 W10 Under 186.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W10 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Under 187.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W9 Over 187.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Under 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W8 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W8 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W7 Under 181.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2023 W7 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology