RB · HOU · 107 lines since 2023
Woody Marks Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Woody Marks, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 32% — we make it 33%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 4.7 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 8.5 rec yds — we project 5.6 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 8.5 rush attempts — we project 9 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 46.5 rush + rec yds — we project 40 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 35.5 rush yds — we project 32 (P(over) 44%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 10, under 9 (19 graded)
- Receiving yards over 5, under 12 (17 graded)
- Receptions over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 13 (20 graded)
- Rush attempts over 10, under 4 (14 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 39–38 · Missed tackles 3–4 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–2 · Dome team outdoors 3–2 · Short week 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–2 · Starters out on defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 32% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.7 | 38% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.6 | 39% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 8.5 | 9 | 58% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 46.5 | 40 | 42% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 32 | 44% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.6 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 32 | 48% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 47% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 43 | 69% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.4 | 41% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 44 | 68% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.9 | 51% / 49% | -2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 49 | 78% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.2 | 41% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.2 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 15.5 | 11 | 19% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 38 | 29% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.3 | 39% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 4.8 | 38% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 13.5 | 9 | 15% / 48% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 26 | 16% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.8 | 44% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.8 | 41% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 19.5 | 15 | 27% / 52% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 76.5 | 59 | 30% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.3 | 36% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.0 | 35% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 13.5 | 11 | 29% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 35 | 29% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 5.6 | 38% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 6.8 | 35% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 14.5 | 11 | 28% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 40 | 33% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.6 | 42% / 51% | -5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 6.3 | 36% / 50% | -5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 15.5 | 11 | 19% / 47% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 35 | 14% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.0 | 41% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.3 | 36% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 14.5 | 11 | 24% / 53% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 40 | 23% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.6 | 34% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 7 | 30% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 19% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 10.5 | 9 | 37% / 47% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 29 | 43% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.6 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 9.9 | 37% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 9.5 | 8 | 38% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 29 | 42% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.7 | 40% / 49% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 11 | 34% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 9.5 | 8 | 38% / 54% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 28 | 33% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 10.5 | 5.1 | 29% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 5.9 | 26% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 15% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 8.5 | 6 | 25% / 54% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 20 | 32% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.3 | 39% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 7.9 | 29% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 13.5 | 6 | 3% / 44% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 24 | 11% / 49% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 6.5 | 0.1 | 29% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0.1 | 27% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 18% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 8.5 | 4 | 7% / 44% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 15 | 23% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 7.3 | 20% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 3.5 | 1 | 8% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 2.3 | 19% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 30.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 30.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 51.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 19.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 19.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 76.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 47.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 63.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 61.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 61.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 61.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology