WR · HOU · 128 lines since 2023
Xavier Hutchinson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Xavier Hutchinson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 16% — we make it 12%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 14.5 rec yds — we project 24 (P(over) 66%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 63%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 16, under 12 (28 graded)
- Receptions over 14, under 10 (24 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 49 (51 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 22–19 · Freezing 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 6–2 · Short week 2–1 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 17 | 60% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 24 | 66% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 42% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 35 | 60% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 36 | 47% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 28 | 44% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 20 | 53% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 14.5 | 11 | 42% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 14 | 38% / 51% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.0 | 48% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 15 | 54% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 55% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 6.5 | 11 | 65% / 52% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 15 | 66% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 2 | 82% / 65% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 54% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 53% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 56% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 21 | 57% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 58% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 29 | 51% / 51% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 43% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 43% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.9 | 48% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 12 | 50% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.3 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 9.8 | 40% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.8 | 45% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 44% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 7.0 | 35% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 7.5 | 30% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 12.5 | 9.8 | 43% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 37% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 1.1 | 26% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 6.2 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 7.9 | 32% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 0 | 18% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 17% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 0.4 | 26% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 17% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 0.1 | 20% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 17% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 5.9 | 27% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 0 | 15% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | – | void |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | – | void |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | void |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 12.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 14.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 3.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 19.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 19.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 18.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 16.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology