TE · PHI · 131 lines since 2023
Zach Ertz Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Zach Ertz, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 20, under 19 (39 graded)
- Receptions over 21, under 18 (39 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 28 (39 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 21–33 · Pre-snap motion 3–3 · Starters out on defense 3–1 · Short week 0–2 · Freezing 1–0 · Middle of the field 3–3 · Dome team outdoors 1–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 27 | 59% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 28 | 79% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 79% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 31 | 42% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 50% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 35 | 39% / 50% | 42 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 55% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 31 | 47% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 33 | 47% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 29 | 48% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 61% / 48% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 41 | 48% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 13.5 | 19 | 68% / 53% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 36 | 57% / 48% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 37 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 39 | 52% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 60% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 34 | 53% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 39% / 52% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 15.5 | 20 | 67% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 43 | 63% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 36 | 43% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 34 | 50% / 49% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 44 | 62% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 36 | 52% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 33 | 53% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 29 | 44% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 31 | 49% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 35 | 51% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 46% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 41 | 60% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 34 | 54% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 30 | 60% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 31 | 52% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 45% / 48% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 25 | 51% / 48% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 12 | 25% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 26 | 54% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 39 | 61% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 39 | 61% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 64% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 33 | 64% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 72% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 40 | 62% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 77% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 37 | 64% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 72% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 15.5 | – | – / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 53% | 6 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 34.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 30.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 30.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 33.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 31.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 31.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology