WR · BAL · 188 lines since 2023
Zay Flowers Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Zay Flowers, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 33% — we make it 27%
- Line 24.5 yds longest rec — we project 26 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 67.5 rec yds — we project 69 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 5.5 receptions — we project 6 (P(over) 52%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 3, under 3 (6 graded)
- Receiving yards over 32, under 21 (53 graded)
- Receptions over 31, under 22 (53 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 38 (53 graded)
- Rush attempts over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 9–5 · Missed tackles 7–10 · Pre-snap motion 6–15 · model 47–36 · Freezing 1–2 · Short week 5–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–4 · Starters out on defense 1–3 · Play action 2–3 · Explosive plays 0–3
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 56% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 69 | 52% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 68 | 47% / 50% | 118 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 76 | 72% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 71% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 105 | 73% / 50% | 150 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 8 | 83% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 23.5 | 25 | 55% / 49% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 66 | 52% / 50% | 138 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 63% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 59% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 52 | 51% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 24.5 | 28 | 60% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 72 | 58% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 24.5 | 30 | 63% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 78 | 61% / 49% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 0.5 | 0 | 45% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 36% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 24.5 | 25 | 52% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 61 | 53% / 51% | 124 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 54% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 32% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 24.5 | 30 | 64% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 82 | 59% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 0 | 29% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 24.5 | 31 | 65% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 83 | 63% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 66% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 34% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 58% / 49% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 73 | 62% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 25.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 67 | 49% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 25.5 | 28 | 57% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 75 | 56% / 50% | 64 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 50% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 25 | 63% / 48% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 60 | 64% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 51 | 56% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 61% / 51% | 56 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 54 | 57% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 25.5 | 28 | 57% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 66 | 52% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 24.5 | 32 | 69% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 86 | 58% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 0.5 | 0 | 49% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 36% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 24.5 | 32 | 68% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 81 | 62% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 37% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 30 | 69% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 75 | 63% / 50% | 143 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 73 | 58% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 75 | 60% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 74 | 59% / 53% | 100 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 63% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 70 | 59% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 69 | 56% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 63 | 53% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 62 | 51% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 68 | 53% / 52% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 62 | 59% / 48% | 127 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 56 | 52% / 49% | 115 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 76 | 58% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 67 | 57% / 51% | 132 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 42% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 51 | 48% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 58 | 55% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 58 | 54% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 54 | 54% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 55 | 53% / 52% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 57 | 53% / 48% | 106 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 48 | 51% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 59 | 56% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 56 | 60% / 48% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 68 | 54% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 59 | 57% / 46% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 42 | 50% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 64 | 56% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 64% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 63 | 56% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 59 | 52% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 58 | 52% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 68 | 71% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 7 | 86% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 79 | 75% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 8 | 87% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 85 | 74% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 81% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 73 | 81% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 8 | 93% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 41.5 | – | – / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 44% | 9 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 66.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 72.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 72.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 62.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 62.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 51.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 63.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 63.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 0.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 58.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 68.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 68.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 68.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 64.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 58.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 67.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 67.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 46.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology