2026 season · Week 5 · QB
Start Stafford over Maye in PPR. A 28.5 implied team total vs 24.5; BUF allows the 4th-most QB points; Projects 20.8 vs 18.7 PPR points.
Drake MayeNEQBvs LV18.6 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 17.6 · ceiling 30
A 24.5 implied team total vs 28.5; BUF allows the 4th-most QB points; Projects 18.7 vs 20.8 PPR points.
Medium
Matthew StaffordLARQBvs BUF20.8 PPR pts
Floor 10 · median 19.7 · ceiling 33
A 28.5 implied team total vs 24.5; BUF allows the 4th-most QB points; Projects 20.8 vs 18.7 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartDrake Maye stats and usageMatthew Stafford stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Stafford over Maye in PPR. A 28.5 implied team total vs 24.5; BUF allows the 4th-most QB points; Projects 20.8 vs 18.7 PPR points.
Matthew Stafford: his 90th-percentile outcome is 33 PPR points against 30 for Drake Maye, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Matthew Stafford: a floor (10th percentile) of 10 PPR points vs 9, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Maye 18.7, Stafford 20.8; half-PPR: Maye 18.7, Stafford 20.8; standard: Maye 18.6, Stafford 20.8 (points if he plays).
