2026 season · Week 5 · QB
Toss-up between Allen and Stafford in PPR. Too close to call: 20.2 vs 20.3 projected PPR points; LAR allows the 8th-fewest QB points. In standard scoring the call flips to Stafford.
Josh AllenBUFQB@ LAR20.6 PPR pts
Floor 10 · median 19.4 · ceiling 33
Too close to call: 20.2 vs 20.3 projected PPR points; LAR allows the 8th-fewest QB points.
Medium
Matthew StaffordLARQBvs BUF20.8 PPR pts
Floor 10 · median 19.7 · ceiling 33
Too close to call: 20.3 vs 20.2 projected PPR points; a 28.5 implied team total; BUF allows the 4th-most QB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJosh Allen stats and usageMatthew Stafford stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Allen and Stafford in PPR. Too close to call: 20.2 vs 20.3 projected PPR points; LAR allows the 8th-fewest QB points. In standard scoring the call flips to Stafford.
Josh Allen: his 90th-percentile outcome is 33 PPR points against 33 for Matthew Stafford, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Josh Allen: a floor (10th percentile) of 10 PPR points vs 10, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Allen 20.6, Stafford 20.8; half-PPR: Allen 20.5, Stafford 20.8; standard: Allen 20.5, Stafford 20.8 (points if he plays).
