2026 season · Week 5 · QB
Start Goff over Allen in PPR. A 29.5 implied team total vs 26.0; ARI allows the 5th-most QB points; Projects 21.0 vs 20.6 PPR points.
Jared GoffDETQB@ ARI20.9 PPR pts
Floor 10 · median 19.8 · ceiling 33
A 29.5 implied team total vs 26.0; ARI allows the 5th-most QB points; Projects 21.0 vs 20.6 PPR points.
Medium
Josh AllenBUFQB@ LAR20.6 PPR pts
Floor 10 · median 19.4 · ceiling 33
A 26.0 implied team total vs 29.5; LAR allows the 8th-fewest QB points; Projects 20.6 vs 21.0 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJared Goff stats and usageJosh Allen stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Goff over Allen in PPR. A 29.5 implied team total vs 26.0; ARI allows the 5th-most QB points; Projects 21.0 vs 20.6 PPR points.
Jared Goff: his 90th-percentile outcome is 33 PPR points against 33 for Josh Allen, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jared Goff: a floor (10th percentile) of 10 PPR points vs 10, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Goff 21.0, Allen 20.6; half-PPR: Goff 21.0, Allen 20.5; standard: Goff 21.0, Allen 20.5 (points if he plays).
