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NHL Stack Finder: Thursday, Nov 12

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Thursday, Nov 12 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: TBL PP1 (Carlson–Kucherov–Guentzel–Point–Hagel) vs CBJ.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1TBLPP1vs CBJ0.71 xG

    John Carlson99%, Nikita Kucherov100%, Jake Guentzel100%, Brayden Point95%, Brandon Hagel100%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2BUFL1vs CHI0.69 xG

    Jack Quinn47%, Noah Ostlund26%, Zach Benson56%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3MINPP1vs TOR0.67 xG

    Joel Eriksson Ek81%, Kirill Kaprizov98%, Quinn Hughes100%, Matt Boldy100%, Maxim Shabanov27%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4SEAL1vs CAR0.64 xG

    Jordan Eberle34%, Chandler Stephenson19%, Bobby McMann45%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5BUFL2vs CHI0.60 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Josh Norris38%, Josh Doan61%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6UTAL1vs STL0.59 xG

    Vincent Trocheck89%, Nick Schmaltz95%, Clayton Keller100%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7WPGL1vs DAL0.59 xG

    Mark Scheifele99%, Kyle Connor99%, Cole Perfetti49%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8LAKL1vs NYI0.58 xG

    Adrian Kempe97%, Artemi Panarin97%, Quinton Byfield86%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9STLL1vs UTA0.57 xG

    Robert Thomas92%, Dylan Holloway95%, Jimmy Snuggerud80%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10FLAL1vs DET0.56 xG

    Carter Verhaeghe72%, Sam Bennett83%, Matthew Tkachuk100%

    Matchup factors →

By game

MTL @ BOS

MIN @ TOR

COL @ OTT

DET @ FLA

WSH @ NJD

TBL @ CBJ

BUF @ CHI

WPG @ DAL

STL @ UTA

NYI @ LAK

CAR @ SEA

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.