Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Blitz-heavy defense: every call
Players who score more per dropback when the defense blitzes (hot routes, quick throws, check-downs) gain against blitz-heavy defenses.
2024 backtest
3–3
50.0% vs 53.7% baseline
2025 backtest
1–2–1
33.3% vs 49.3% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
3–3
50.0% vs 51.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1–4 | 20.0% | 49.6% |
| RB | 3–0–1 | 100.0% | 61.8% |
| WR | 0–1 | 0.0% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 4–5–1 | 44.4% | 52.2% |
Call log
No calls match. (The call log fills once the track-record table is loaded.)
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse