Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Blitz-heavy defense: every call
Players who score more per dropback when the defense blitzes (hot routes, quick throws, check-downs) gain against blitz-heavy defenses.
2024 backtest
3–3
50.0% vs 53.7% baseline
2025 backtest
1–2–1
33.3% vs 49.3% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
3–3
50.0% vs 51.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1–4 | 20.0% | 49.6% |
| RB | 3–0–1 | 100.0% | 61.8% |
| WR | 0–1 | 0.0% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 4–5–1 | 44.4% | 52.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W3 | Kenny GainwellRB TB | Fade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 3.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 15.5 | 7.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W8 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 4.9 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 5.3 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Blitz-heavy defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 34.4 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse