Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Blitz-heavy defense: every call

Players who score more per dropback when the defense blitzes (hot routes, quick throws, check-downs) gain against blitz-heavy defenses.

2024 backtest

3–3

50.0% vs 53.7% baseline

Win rate 50.0% (95% 18.8%–81.2%) vs baseline 53.7%

2025 backtest

1–2–1

33.3% vs 49.3% baseline

Win rate 33.3% (95% 6.2%–79.2%) vs baseline 49.3%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

3–3

50.0% vs 51.3% baseline

Win rate 50.0% (95% 18.8%–81.2%) vs baseline 51.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB1–420.0%49.6%
RB3–0–1100.0%61.8%
WR0–10.0%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.54–5–144.4%52.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Blitz-heavy defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected +0.3)9.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBBoost (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected +0.3)7.95.5−2.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kenny GainwellRB TBFade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)7.73.0−4.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Owen WrightRB TBFade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)3.20.0−3.2voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bucky IrvingRB TBFade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)15.57.8−7.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen McMillanWR TBBoost (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected +0.3)3.30.0−3.3voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected +0.7)18.97.7−11.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Rome OdunzeWR CHIBoost (Blitz-heavy defense vs MIN, expected +0.3)12.17.3−4.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse