Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 2.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 20.6 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.5 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 17.3 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 2.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 3.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 3.1 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 12.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 7.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 5.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | 2.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.0 | 18.0 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.3 | 2.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 11.9 | 15.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 9.9 | 14.8 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 3.1 | 5.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 7.8 | 0.7 | −7.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.9 | 7.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.7 | 2.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.4 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 5.7 | 10.9 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 6.6 | 8.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse