Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 60.7% (95% 53.4%–67.4%) vs baseline 61.1%

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 59.6% (95% 53.0%–65.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB23–27–246.0%50.4%
WR152–75–2367.0%63.7%
TE70–61–3153.4%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag111–72–2660.7%61.1%
0.25–0.5134–91–3059.6%61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Freezing calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W14Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)3.32.1−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Durham SmytheTE CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3)0.81.2+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W14Mike GesickiTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)5.820.6+14.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Drew SampleTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Noah FantTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)4.82.5−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.517.3+10.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cole KmetTE CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3)5.56.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Noah GrayTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)3.32.4−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.53.4+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)2.03.1+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.814.1+7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)3.24.2+1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cade StoverTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jared WileyTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Colston LovelandTE CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3)7.812.9+5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.17.3+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Chris ManhertzTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Austin HooperTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)4.30.0−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Hunter HenryTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.611.3+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Daniel BellingerTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jack WestoverTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Theo JohnsonTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)8.05.9−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.2––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 134 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse