Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 8.7 | 16.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.7 | 9.9 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McKeeQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 10.3 | 18.9 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.9 | 8.3 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.4 | 6.8 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.4 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 19.8 | 33.5 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 3.3 | 13.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 13.0 | 29.1 | +16.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 3.2 | 15.5 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 18.7 | 25.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 17.2 | 23.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 5.7 | 10.9 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 5.2 | 24.0 | +18.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 16.9 | 23.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 6.6 | 8.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.3 | 7.6 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 12.0 | 26.0 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.6 | 3.2 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 7.6 | 20.5 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 10.9 | 21.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 11.4 | 14.3 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 13.8 | 16.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 12.5 | 17.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 10.2 | 20.5 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 18.0 | 34.4 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 15.5 | 22.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 14.0 | 26.9 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 7.1 | 7.7 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.0 | 6.8 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 6.5 | 10.3 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 19.4 | 28.4 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 14.6 | 25.2 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 16.5 | 19.0 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 16.1 | 17.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 1.0 | 2.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 10.0 | 11.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 0.8 | 3.3 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 7.0 | 18.8 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 17.7 | 20.6 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 15.6 | 16.4 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 5.3 | 12.5 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 13.1 | 19.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 163 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse