Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | 1.5 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 17.8 | 6.3 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 2.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 1.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 0.6 | −12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.5 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 6.8 | 4.1 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 2.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 20.4 | 10.2 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 9.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 0.0 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 3.7 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 15.8 | 7.4 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 9.6 | 8.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 11.3 | 3.6 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 12.5 | 5.6 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.7 | 1.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 10.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 5.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 13.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 16.0 | 11.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 12.4 | 3.5 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Carson WentzQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 10.3 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 2.9 | 1.4 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 3.9 | 1.5 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.3 | 2.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 15.5 | 2.8 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 15.2 | 12.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 18.3 | 9.3 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 26.3 | 25.6 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 8.6 | 6.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.9 | 0.1 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 14.5 | 1.0 | −13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 10.5 | 5.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 5.9 | 3.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 9.2 | 3.8 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.7 | 3.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 6.4 | 4.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse