Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 60.7% (95% 53.4%–67.4%) vs baseline 61.1%

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 59.6% (95% 53.0%–65.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB23–27–246.0%50.4%
WR152–75–2367.0%63.7%
TE70–61–3153.4%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag111–72–2660.7%61.1%
0.25–0.5134–91–3059.6%61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Freezing calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W14Brandin CooksWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)4.00.0−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W14JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2)3.91.5−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.5)17.86.3−11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Dalton SchultzTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)8.95.2−3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)3.32.1−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Christian KirkWR HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2)5.11.6−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14DJ MooreWR CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2)13.10.6−12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Drew SampleTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Noah FantTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)4.82.5−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2)6.24.5−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)6.84.1−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Noah GrayTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)3.32.4−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)20.410.2−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)12.89.6−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2)12.80.0−12.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2)4.70.0−4.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)7.03.7−3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Mitchell TinsleyWR CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)3.70.0−3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2)15.87.4−8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14C.J. StroudQB HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.5)13.412.6−0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Cade StoverTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2)9.68.5−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)11.33.6−7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jahdae WalkerWR CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)12.55.6−6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Austin HooperTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)4.30.0−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mack HollinsWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)9.45.3−4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaiah HodginsWR NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)6.71.4−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Daniel BellingerTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)13.110.4−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Theo JohnsonTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)8.05.9−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dalen CambreWR NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jaxson DartQB NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)15.313.6−1.7✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 134 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse