Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.4 | 6.8 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.8 | 0.8 | −7.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.9 | 7.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.7 | 2.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 10.5 | 5.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.4 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 19.8 | 33.5 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 3.3 | 13.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 5.9 | 3.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 12.2 | 0.0 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 9.2 | 3.8 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 13.0 | 29.1 | +16.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 3.2 | 15.5 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 18.7 | 25.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.7 | 3.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 6.4 | 4.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 17.2 | 23.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 5.7 | 10.9 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 14.0 | 14.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 5.2 | 24.0 | +18.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 16.7 | 17.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 16.9 | 23.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse