Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 16.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 22.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | 4.2 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 5.5 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 2.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 7.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 23.9 | 23.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 14.3 | 7.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 5.0 | 2.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 6.6 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 11.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 6.5 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 4.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 0.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 4.5 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 10.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 20.5 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javon BakerWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 2.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | 4.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 16.6 | 19.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 4.9 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 6.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse