Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 26.3 | 25.6 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 20.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 8.6 | 6.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.9 | 0.1 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 14.5 | 1.0 | −13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 8.7 | 16.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.7 | 9.9 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McKeeQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 10.3 | 18.9 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.9 | 8.3 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.4 | 6.8 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.8 | 0.8 | −7.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.9 | 7.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.7 | 2.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 10.5 | 5.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.4 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 19.8 | 33.5 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 3.3 | 13.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 5.9 | 3.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 12.2 | 0.0 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 9.2 | 3.8 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 13.0 | 29.1 | +16.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 3.2 | 15.5 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 18.7 | 25.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse