Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.7 | 3.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 6.4 | 4.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 17.2 | 23.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 5.7 | 10.9 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 14.0 | 14.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 5.2 | 24.0 | +18.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 16.7 | 17.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 16.9 | 23.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 6.6 | 8.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 19.9 | 4.5 | −15.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.3 | 7.6 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 5.3 | 2.2 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 14.6 | 11.1 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 19.7 | 19.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 12.0 | 26.0 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.6 | 3.2 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 7.6 | 20.5 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 10.9 | 21.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 11.4 | 14.3 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 13.8 | 16.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse