Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 21.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 20.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 12.2 | 0.0 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Willie SneadWR SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse