Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 17.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | 7.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 15.9 | 7.3 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 1.5 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 10.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 8.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 3.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 19.5 | 0.0 | −19.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 10.4 | +2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.9 | 15.1 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 8.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 6.1 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 5.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.9 | 14.5 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 5.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 4.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 6.5 | 4.9 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 7.8 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 15.6 | 29.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 1.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | 7.4 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 12.6 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 15.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Javon BakerWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 11.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | 4.6 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.6 | 0.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 7.6 | 8.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 0.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinn EwersQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.2 | 8.4 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Theo Wease Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 6.1 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brady CookQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 7.4 | 9.1 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | 4.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CJ DippreTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | 0.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 20.4 | 22.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 9.1 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 13.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 1.3 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 3.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.7 | 7.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 5 · 435 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse