Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | 2.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.6 | 6.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 4.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | 9.6 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 11.9 | 15.4 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.7 | 7.1 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.6 | 2.9 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | 3.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 7.5 | 17.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.0 | 14.0 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.2 | 4.0 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 5.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.7 | 3.5 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.6 | 3.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.8 | 0.0 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 7.5 | 3.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.6 | 3.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.6 | 9.9 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.9 | 9.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 2.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.2 | 3.1 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.5 | 14.4 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.1 | 21.7 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.3 | 10.9 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse