Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Austin HooperTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)3.31.9−1.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)7.711.7+4.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jonnu SmithTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)2.92.9−0.0pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)11.62.9−8.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Foster MoreauTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)3.61.1−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sean McKeonTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josiah DeguaraTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brevin JordanTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)2.92.3−0.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)8.37.7−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Hunter LongTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.72.0+1.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)0.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nick MuseTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)15.610.1−5.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)8.04.1−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Daniel BellingerTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)1.91.2−0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)8.916.5+7.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)8.116.5+8.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)2.69.9+7.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)3.50.0−3.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)3.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)1.43.0+1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)8.32.2−6.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)0.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)12.89.1−3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)5.03.5−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mark RedmanTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.24.9+4.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake DabneyTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tanner KoziolTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marlin KleinTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nate BoerkircherTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)2.02.5+0.5pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.98.3+6.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)8.53.1−5.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Lawrence CagerTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)2.61.9−0.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Sal CannellaTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Daniel BellingerTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)1.83.6+1.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Blake WhiteheartTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0)8.66.2−2.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)0.81.2+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)6.511.9+5.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.0)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)4.93.4−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)8.224.1+15.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Carsen RyanTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)0.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nate BoerkircherTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)12.04.2−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.61.5−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)12.910.6−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.72.6+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)11.87.9−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.73.0+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)6.77.5+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.21.6−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.11.6+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)3.50.0−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)6.73.3−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)5.04.9−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)2.54.7+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)3.7-0.5−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.510.4+2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Lawrence CagerTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)6.65.6−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Adam TrautmanTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.37.5+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)1.89.3+7.5✅Backtest ·

Page 1 of 19 · 1,882 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse