Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.2)16.59.7−6.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Geno SmithQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.2)13.78.8−4.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jameis WinstonQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)13.518.0+4.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.4)20.120.5+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.2)17.310.4−6.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.2)22.218.5−3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.2)16.813.3−3.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.2)16.47.9−8.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.2)14.813.1−1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.2)14.513.5−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.2)20.423.7+3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.4)18.113.1−5.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.2)18.021.5+3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.2)18.723.1+4.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.2)15.726.2+10.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.2)10.720.4+9.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Drew LockQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.2)14.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.2)18.119.8+1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)20.231.3+11.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik WillisQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.2)11.510.0−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.2)15.913.6−2.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.2)11.59.4−2.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh JohnsonQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −1.4)9.915.7+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)22.326.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8)20.30.7−19.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)13.015.6+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.8)19.50.0−19.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)16.28.8−7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)21.923.3+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris OladokunQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)12.7-1.7−14.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)16.75.2−11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Kenny PickettQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)10.1-1.0−11.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Malik WillisQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Clayton TuneQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)6.53.7−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)13.916.5+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)19.210.5−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)22.515.7−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18J.J. McCarthyQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6)16.48.0−8.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brady CookQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8)7.49.1+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6)13.40.3−13.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)17.820.4+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)15.17.8−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)12.17.3−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Josh JohnsonQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)11.98.9−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)20.012.8−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)12.79.1−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)12.67.1−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.82.1−15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)17.317.4+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)15.615.1−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)15.48.9−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)21.720.4−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)20.023.1+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Chris OladokunQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)7.77.7+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.88.9−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)19.019.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)21.332.4+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)18.023.0+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quinn EwersQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)11.015.8+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)10.93.6−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)16.325.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.8)15.421.9+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)13.817.1+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.815.5+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)14.917.6+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)18.719.2+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.526.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)17.610.6−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)19.86.9−12.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)18.330.2+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)18.529.0+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)16.231.2+15.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)18.830.9+12.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6)14.217.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3)17.221.0+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)11.018.0+7.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)15.80.0−15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.317.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)15.117.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)21.320.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)10.426.9+16.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3)16.314.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)17.713.1−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)17.811.3−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)11.716.2+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)13.710.4−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.744.3+25.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kenny PickettQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.51.3−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)14.615.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)18.523.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)17.620.5+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)16.619.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)17.922.1+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tyrod TaylorQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)13.3-1.8−15.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)18.421.1+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)16.911.1−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)16.022.3+6.3✅Backtest ·

Page 1 of 5 · 496 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse