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2026 season · Week 5 · live

Over Expected: who beat expectations in Week 5

Every game’s biggest overperformer and letdown against our pregame projection, live on game days, then the week’s leaders in fantasy points over expected (FPOE): points beyond what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and throws. Big FPOE weeks rarely repeat; the usage behind them does.

LiveUpdated Sun, Oct 11, 6:15 PM ET· box scores refresh every 15 minutes; this page reloads itself while open. Live numbers compare points with the projection’s pace.

Game by game

  • TB TB24@DAL DAL16Final · box score
    Beat expectations+18.9
    Bucky IrvingBucky IrvingTBRB

    31.5 pts · proj 12.6 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 24 touches

    Letdown−17.4
    CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR

    2.9 pts · proj 20.4 · 5th-percentile game

    5 targets vs a projected 10

  • PHI PHI17@JAX JAX19Final · box score
    Beat expectations+17.2
    Parker WashingtonParker WashingtonJAXWR

    30.4 pts · proj 13.2 · 98th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 9 touches

    Letdown−8.4
    Brian Thomas Jr.Brian Thomas Jr.JAXWR

    0.0 pts · proj 8.4 · 7th-percentile game

    0 for 0 on 3 targets

  • CHI CHI7@GB GB31Final · box score
    Beat expectations+17.9
    Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR

    32.3 pts · proj 14.4 · 98th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 8 touches

    Letdown−12.6
    Tyson BagentTyson BagentCHIQB

    1.2 pts · proj 13.8 · 3rd-percentile game

    2 interceptions (12/21, 87 yds, 2 INT)

  • CIN CIN31@MIA MIA24Final · box score
    Beat expectations+9.6
    Samaje PerineSamaje PerineCINRB

    15.8 pts · proj 6.2 · 98th-percentile game

    14 carries vs a projected 5

    Letdown−13.1
    Tee HigginsTee HigginsCINWR

    4.2 pts · proj 17.3 · 9th-percentile game

    4 targets vs a projected 9

  • LV LV17@NE NE45Final · box score
    Beat expectations+20.7
    Drake MayeDrake MayeNEQB

    39.5 pts · proj 18.8 · 99th-percentile game

    4 TD passes (26/34, 374 yds, 4 TD, 25 rush yds, 1 rush TD)

    Letdown−14.2
    Romeo DoubsRomeo DoubsNEWR

    2.6 pts · proj 16.8 · 7th-percentile game

    3 targets vs a projected 9

  • MIN MIN23@NO NO13Final · box score
    Beat expectations+7.4
    Gavin BartholomewGavin BartholomewMINTE

    8.3 pts · proj 0.9 · 99th-percentile game

    6 targets vs a projected 1 — Addison out

    Letdown−15.3
    Tyler ShoughTyler ShoughNOQB

    -0.2 pts · proj 15.2 · 2nd-percentile game

    0 carries vs a projected 4

  • CLE CLE12@NYJ NYJ17Final · box score
    Beat expectations+8.2
    Isaiah BondIsaiah BondCLEWR

    10.4 pts · proj 2.2 · 99th-percentile game

    7 targets vs a projected 1 — Concepcion left early

    Letdown−8.0
    KC ConcepcionKC ConcepcionCLEWR

    1.5 pts · proj 9.5 · 10th-percentile game

    Left the game (Q1 4:59, did not return)

  • IND IND22@PIT PIT34Final · box score
    Beat expectations+16.7
    Jaylen WarrenJaylen WarrenPITRB

    36.8 pts · proj 20.1 · 95th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 21 touches

    Letdown−11.5
    DK MetcalfDK MetcalfPITWR

    5.3 pts · proj 16.8 · 12th-percentile game

    4 targets vs a projected 10

  • HOU HOU26@TEN TEN3Final · box score
    Beat expectations+10.9
    Jaylin NoelJaylin NoelHOUWR

    15.2 pts · proj 4.3 · 99th-percentile game

    5 for 41, 1 TD on 5 targets; 1 carry for 1

    Letdown−10.8
    David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURB

    1.1 pts · proj 11.9 · 7th-percentile game

    5 carries vs a projected 15

  • NYG NYG27@WAS WAS27Final · box score
    Beat expectations+21.6
    Isaiah LikelyIsaiah LikelyNYGTE

    32.4 pts · proj 10.8 · 99th-percentile game

    13 targets vs a projected 7

    Letdown−10.2
    Rachaad WhiteRachaad WhiteWASRB

    3.0 pts · proj 13.2 · 9th-percentile game

    7 carries for 18; 1 for 2 on 1 target

  • DEN DEN10@LAC LAC101:15 - 3rd
    Beat expectationsvs pace +7.4
    Hayden RucciHayden RucciLACTE

    7.7 pts · proj 0.4 · pace 0.3

    1 for 7, 1 TD on 1 target

    Letdownvs pace −9.1
    RJ HarveyRJ HarveyDENRB

    0.6 pts · proj 13.3 · pace 9.7

    2 carries vs a projected 10

  • DET DET24@ARI ARI714:20 - 3rd
    Beat expectationsvs pace +8.5
    Sam LaPortaSam LaPortaDETTE

    15.1 pts · proj 13.0 · pace 6.6

    3 for 61, 1 TD on 3 targets

    Letdownvs pace −7.9
    Trey McBrideTrey McBrideARITE

    2.1 pts · proj 19.5 · pace 10.0

    2 targets vs a projected 11

  • SF SF21@SEA SEA1315:00 - 3rd
    Beat expectationsvs pace +6.5
    Mike EvansMike EvansSFWR

    12.8 pts · proj 12.7 · pace 6.3

    3 for 38, 1 TD on 5 targets

    Letdownvs pace −6.9
    Sam DarnoldSam DarnoldSEAQB

    1.7 pts · proj 17.0 · pace 8.5

    14 pass attempts vs a projected 31

  • BAL BAL@ATL ATLSun 8:20 PM ET

    Not started.

  • BUF BUF@LAR LARMon 8:15 PM ET

    Not started.

Live and same-day numbers use ESPN box scores; official nflverse stats and FPOE replace them the morning after.

Week 5 leaderboard

Scoring

Fantasy points minus our last projection before kickoff. The top and bottom of the list are shown; sort any column.

Week leaderboard, vs projection, ALL
Why
Isaiah LikelyIsaiah LikelyNYGTEvs WAS · box score32.410.8+21.613 targets vs a projected 7
Drake MayeDrake MayeNEQBvs LV · box score39.518.8+20.74 TD passes (26/34, 374 yds, 4 TD, 25 rush yds, 1 rush TD)
Bucky IrvingBucky IrvingTBRBvs DAL · box score31.512.6+18.92 touchdowns on 24 touches
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWRvs CHI · box score32.314.4+17.92 touchdowns on 8 touches
Malik NabersMalik NabersNYGWRvs WAS · box score29.111.5+17.620 targets vs a projected 7
Parker WashingtonParker WashingtonJAXWRvs PHI · box score30.413.2+17.22 touchdowns on 9 touches
Jaylen WarrenJaylen WarrenPITRBvs IND · box score36.820.1+16.72 touchdowns on 21 touches
Kyle WilliamsKyle WilliamsNEWRvs LV · box score18.14.0+14.13 for 91, 1 TD on 3 targets
Pat FreiermuthPat FreiermuthPITTEvs IND · box score21.57.5+14.02 touchdowns on 8 touches
DeMario DouglasDeMario DouglasNEWRvs LV · box score22.58.6+13.92 touchdowns on 5 touches
George PickensGeorge PickensDALWRvs TB · box score28.014.3+13.813 targets vs a projected 7
Jayden DanielsJayden DanielsWASQBvs NYG · box score30.316.6+13.79 carries vs a projected 4
Jameis WinstonJameis WinstonNYGQBvs WAS · box score25.712.2+13.654 pass attempts vs a projected 30
Jaylin NoelJaylin NoelHOUWRvs TEN · box score15.24.3+10.95 for 41, 1 TD on 5 targets; 1 carry for 1
Dylan LaubeDylan LaubeLVRBvs NE · box score11.50.6+10.94 carries for 9, 1 TD; 3 for 16 on 3 targets
Tyler WarrenTyler WarrenINDTEvs PIT · box score21.411.6+9.87 for 83 on 9 targets; 1 carry for 1, 1 TD
Samaje PerineSamaje PerineCINRBvs MIA · box score15.86.2+9.614 carries vs a projected 5
Germie BernardGermie BernardPITWRvs IND · box score14.45.0+9.39 targets vs a projected 3 — Pittman out
Darius CooperDarius CooperPHIWRvs JAX · box score15.15.8+9.32 for 71, 1 TD on 3 targets
Sam LaPortaSam LaPortaDETTEvs ARI · live15.113.0pace 6.6+8.53 for 61, 1 TD on 3 targets
KC ConcepcionKC ConcepcionCLEWRvs NYJ · box score1.59.5−8.0Left the game (Q1 4:59, did not return)
Bo NixBo NixDENQBvs LAC · live3.516.0pace 11.7−8.218 pass attempts vs a projected 33
Josh DownsJosh DownsINDWRvs PIT · box score7.715.9−8.26 targets vs a projected 10
Dak PrescottDak PrescottDALQBvs TB · box score12.621.0−8.30 carries vs a projected 3
Brian Thomas Jr.Brian Thomas Jr.JAXWRvs PHI · box score0.08.4−8.40 for 0 on 3 targets
Alvin KamaraAlvin KamaraNORBvs MIN · box score2.611.4−8.83 carries vs a projected 11
RJ HarveyRJ HarveyDENRBvs LAC · live0.613.3pace 9.7−9.12 carries vs a projected 10
Roman WilsonRoman WilsonPITWRvs IND · box score0.09.1−9.11 target vs a projected 6
Carnell TateCarnell TateTENWRvs HOU · box score1.610.8−9.21 for 6 on 5 targets
Chris OlaveChris OlaveNOWRvs MIN · box score8.618.2−9.66 targets vs a projected 11
Rachaad WhiteRachaad WhiteWASRBvs NYG · box score3.013.2−10.27 carries for 18; 1 for 2 on 1 target
David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURBvs TEN · box score1.111.9−10.85 carries vs a projected 15
DK MetcalfDK MetcalfPITWRvs IND · box score5.316.8−11.54 targets vs a projected 10
T.J. HockensonT.J. HockensonMINTEvs NO · box score1.713.7−12.0Left the game (Q1 14:22, did not return)
Tyson BagentTyson BagentCHIQBvs GB · box score1.213.8−12.62 interceptions (12/21, 87 yds, 2 INT)
Chase BrownChase BrownCINRBvs MIA · box score7.019.7−12.7Lost a fumble (13 carries for 39; 3 for 21 on 4 targets)
Tee HigginsTee HigginsCINWRvs MIA · box score4.217.3−13.14 targets vs a projected 9
Romeo DoubsRomeo DoubsNEWRvs LV · box score2.616.8−14.23 targets vs a projected 9
Tyler ShoughTyler ShoughNOQBvs MIN · box score-0.215.2−15.30 carries vs a projected 4
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWRvs TB · box score2.920.4−17.45 targets vs a projected 10

Team defenses vs projection

Season-long scoring (DraftKings alongside). Points allowed leave out the opponent’s own return touchdowns and safeties, as ESPN and Yahoo score them.

Team defenses: actual fantasy points against the pregame projection
DefensePtsProjvs proj
SFSF D/ST vs SEAlive19.04.1(-1–9)+14.9
GBGB D/ST vs CHIprelim17.04.8(0–10)+12.2
NYJNYJ D/ST vs CLEprelim15.06.1(2–11)+8.9
NONO D/ST vs MINprelim12.05.9(1–11)+6.1
HOUHOU D/ST vs TENprelim12.07.0(3–12)+5.0
CLECLE D/ST vs NYJprelim9.05.8(1–11)+3.2
TBTB D/ST vs DAL7.03.9(-1–9)+3.1
MINMIN D/ST vs NOprelim10.07.3(2–13)+2.7
CINCIN D/ST vs MIAprelim9.06.3(2–11)+2.7
DETDET D/ST vs ARIlive8.05.8(1–11)+2.2
SEASEA D/ST vs SFlive6.05.4(1–11)+0.6
NENE D/ST vs LVprelim6.06.0(1–11)0.0
WASWAS D/ST vs NYGprelim6.06.4(2–12)−0.4
NYGNYG D/ST vs WASprelim5.05.4(1–11)−0.4
PHIPHI D/ST vs JAXprelim4.04.7(0–10)−0.7
ARIARI D/ST vs DETlive3.03.8(-1–9)−0.8
DENDEN D/ST vs LAClive6.07.1(2–12)−1.1
LACLAC D/ST vs DENlive4.05.7(1–11)−1.7
TENTEN D/ST vs HOUprelim2.04.6(0–9)−2.6
MIAMIA D/ST vs CINprelim1.04.8(0–10)−3.8
CHICHI D/ST vs GBprelim1.05.6(1–11)−4.6
JAXJAX D/ST vs PHIprelim2.07.3(2–13)−5.2
INDIND D/ST vs PITprelim0.05.2(1–10)−5.2
DALDAL D/ST vs TB1.06.3(2–11)−5.3
PITPIT D/ST vs INDprelim1.06.6(2–12)−5.6
LVLV D/ST vs NEprelim0.06.4(1–12)−6.4

2026 season: over and under expected

Through Week 4, games with play-by-play only.

Scoring the most above what their usage usually produces (3+ games). History says about a quarter of that edge carries forward: sell-high candidates.

Most points over expected this season
Zay FlowersZay FlowersBALWR322.412.2+10.2Sell high
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR429.219.6+9.6Sell high
Brock PurdyBrock PurdySFQB425.115.9+9.2Sell high
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRB426.419.2+7.2Sell high
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQB428.121.2+6.9Sell high
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR428.121.4+6.6Sell high
Deebo Samuel Sr.Deebo Samuel Sr.SFWR414.58.6+5.8Sell high
Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBALQB419.814.0+5.7Sell high
George KittleGeorge KittleSFTE416.110.4+5.7Sell high
Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesKCQB420.915.2+5.7Sell high
Chuba HubbardChuba HubbardCARRB419.814.4+5.3Sell high
Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRB427.522.6+4.9Sell high
Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRB412.17.3+4.8Sell high
Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTE413.28.6+4.5Sell high
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWR315.010.4+4.5Sell high
Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRB422.418.0+4.4Sell high
Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTE314.810.6+4.3Sell high
Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWR414.310.2+4.2Sell high
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRB429.024.8+4.2Sell high
Josh CameronJosh CameronJAXWR38.14.0+4.1Sell high
Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWR411.27.2+4.1Sell high
Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB422.718.8+4.0Sell high
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR419.315.3+4.0Sell high
Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWR312.78.9+3.7Sell high
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWR317.413.8+3.6Sell high

Next: Ascension (rising usage) · Waiver wire · Projections

How this works

vs projection compares his fantasy points with the last projection we published before his game kicked off (mean, with the 10th–90th percentile range). While a game is on, the projection is scaled by the share of the game played, by quarter and clock.

Expected points (xFP) come from our own play-level model fitted on 2023–25 play-by-play: each target is valued by its air yards, field position and down, each carry by field position, down and whether it was a scramble, each pass attempt by air yards and field position. On 2024–25 games it was not fitted on, xFP averaged within 1–6% of actual points at every position and correlated 0.98 with ffopportunity’s public model.

FPOE = points − xFP. Across 2023–25 it barely carried from one week to the next (r = 0.05) while expected points did (r = 0.34): treat a big FPOE as regression risk, and big usage with a negative FPOE as a buy-low.

Sources: nflverse play-by-play and weekly stats, ESPN box scores (live)Updated Sun, Oct 11, 6:15 PM ET

Frequently asked questions

What does “over expected” mean here?

Two things. Versus projection: his fantasy points minus our pregame projection (the last one made before his game kicked off). Versus opportunity, or FPOE: his points minus what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and pass attempts from the same spots on the field (expected fantasy points, xFP).

Should I chase a big FPOE week?

Usually not. Across 2023–25 a player’s FPOE one week had almost no relationship with the next (correlation 0.05), and only about a quarter of a half-season’s FPOE carried into the second half. A big positive FPOE is a sell-high signal; a big negative FPOE with heavy usage is a buy-low. Expected points from usage hold up far better (week-to-week correlation 0.34).

What is the “pace” number during games?

While a game is on, his projection is scaled by how much of the game has been played (by quarter and clock), so a receiver with 12 points at halftime is compared with half of his projection. It is a rough guide: usage is not spread evenly across a game. Final numbers replace it after the game.

When do the final numbers land?

Live numbers come from box scores every 15 minutes during games. Expected points need play-by-play, which nflverse publishes the morning after; FPOE and the final leaderboard update then (Monday night games on Tuesday).