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2026 season · Week 3

Over Expected: who beat expectations in Week 3

Every game’s biggest overperformer and letdown against our pregame projection, live on game days, then the week’s leaders in fantasy points over expected (FPOE): points beyond what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and throws. Big FPOE weeks rarely repeat; the usage behind them does.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 9:37 PM ET

Game by game

  • ATL ATL35@GB GB14Final
    Beat expectations+16.2
    Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWR

    28.4 pts · proj 12.2 · 98th-percentile game

    9 catches for 194 yards on 10 targets

    Letdown−6.5
    Kyle PittsKyle PittsATLTE

    1.5 pts · proj 8.0 · 13th-percentile game

    1 for 5 on 2 targets

  • LAC LAC16@BUF BUF24Final
    Beat expectations+10.9
    Keaton MitchellKeaton MitchellLACRB

    13.7 pts · proj 2.8 · 99th-percentile game

    8 carries vs a projected 3

    Letdown−10.7
    Khalil ShakirKhalil ShakirBUFWR

    1.6 pts · proj 12.3 · 8th-percentile game

    3 targets vs a projected 6

  • CAR CAR18@CLE CLE21Final
    Beat expectations+16.1
    Harold Fannin Jr.Harold Fannin Jr.CLETE

    24.1 pts · proj 8.0 · 99th-percentile game

    9 targets vs a projected 5

    Letdown−12.2
    Tetairoa McMillanTetairoa McMillanCARWR

    3.7 pts · proj 15.9 · 9th-percentile game

    5 targets vs a projected 9

  • NYJ NYJ24@DET DET31Final
    Beat expectations+18.6
    Kenyon SadiqKenyon SadiqNYJTE

    23.5 pts · proj 4.9 · 99th-percentile game

    8 targets vs a projected 3 — Mitchell out

    Letdown−8.7
    Amon-Ra St. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownDETWR

    11.9 pts · proj 20.6

    4 for 19, 1 TD on 8 targets

  • HOU HOU17@IND IND19Final
    Beat expectations+7.5
    Keenan AllenKeenan AllenINDWR

    18.3 pts · proj 10.8 · 87th-percentile game

    6 for 63, 1 TD on 9 targets

    Letdown−8.9
    Jonathan TaylorJonathan TaylorINDRB

    9.2 pts · proj 18.1

    No touchdown on 26 touches (23 carries for 68; 2 for 4 on 3 targets)

  • NE NE6@JAX JAX35Final
    Beat expectations+8.3
    Jakobi MeyersJakobi MeyersJAXWR

    19.4 pts · proj 11.1 · 88th-percentile game

    7 for 64, 1 TD on 8 targets

    Letdown−12.3
    Drake MayeDrake MayeNEQB

    3.8 pts · proj 16.1 · 6th-percentile game

    2 interceptions (14/25, 199 yds, 2 INT)

  • KC KC24@MIA MIA10Final
    Beat expectations+12.4
    Ollie Gordon IIOllie Gordon IIMIARB

    14.5 pts · proj 2.1 · 99th-percentile game

    17 carries vs a projected 3 — Achane left early

    Letdown−16.0
    De'Von AchaneDe'Von AchaneMIARB

    1.7 pts · proj 17.7 · 4th-percentile game

    Played 5% of snaps (projected 73%)

  • TEN TEN7@NYG NYG12Final
    Beat expectations+11.2
    Wan'Dale RobinsonWan'Dale RobinsonTENWR

    18.7 pts · proj 7.5 · 99th-percentile game

    11 targets vs a projected 5

    Letdown−7.1
    Jameis WinstonJameis WinstonNYGQB

    6.1 pts · proj 13.3 · 14th-percentile game

    14/22, 118 yds

  • CIN CIN27@PIT PIT30Final
    Beat expectations+9.1
    Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersPITQB

    22.7 pts · proj 13.6 · 91st-percentile game

    3 TD passes (19/33, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT)

    Letdown−8.7
    Chase BrownChase BrownCINRB

    8.9 pts · proj 17.6

    No touchdown on 15 touches (13 carries for 61; 2 for 8 on 2 targets)

  • SEA SEA31@WAS WAS33Final
    Beat expectations+14.5
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR

    35.4 pts · proj 20.9 · 91st-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 14 touches

    Letdown−9.7
    Jadarian PriceJadarian PriceSEARB

    1.2 pts · proj 10.9 · 7th-percentile game

    5 carries vs a projected 12

  • ARI ARI30@SF SF36Final
    Beat expectations+15.0
    Jeremiyah LoveJeremiyah LoveARIRB

    21.9 pts · proj 6.9 · 99th-percentile game

    21 carries vs a projected 6 — Conner out

    Letdown−3.3
    Kendrick BourneKendrick BourneARIWR

    4.2 pts · proj 7.5

    2 for 22 on 3 targets

  • MIN MIN23@TB TB16Final
    Beat expectations+11.1
    Jordan AddisonJordan AddisonMINWR

    20.0 pts · proj 8.9 · 96th-percentile game

    A 41-yard touchdown (5 for 90, 1 TD on 9 targets)

    Letdown−10.3
    Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWR

    5.2 pts · proj 15.5 · 12th-percentile game

    Played 12% of snaps (projected 92%)

  • BAL BAL34@DAL DAL31Final
    Beat expectations+9.2
    Matthew HibnerMatthew HibnerBALTE

    10.3 pts · proj 1.1 · 99th-percentile game

    2 for 23, 1 TD on 2 targets

    Letdown−6.8
    Mark AndrewsMark AndrewsBALTE

    5.4 pts · proj 12.2

    3 for 24 on 5 targets

  • LV LV35@NO NO27Final
    Beat expectations+18.6
    Brock BowersBrock BowersLVTE

    27.6 pts · proj 9.1 · 99th-percentile game

    13 targets vs a projected 5

    Letdown−5.0
    Jalen NailorJalen NailorLVWR

    2.6 pts · proj 7.6

    1 for 16 on 3 targets

  • LAR LAR26@DEN DEN30Final
    Beat expectations+16.3
    Tyler HigbeeTyler HigbeeLARTE

    20.2 pts · proj 3.9 · 99th-percentile game

    11 targets vs a projected 2

    Letdown−6.4
    Jaylen WaddleJaylen WaddleDENWR

    6.4 pts · proj 12.8

    2 catches on 7 targets

  • PHI PHI7@CHI CHI27Final
    Beat expectations+12.9
    Kalif RaymondKalif RaymondCHIWR

    21.0 pts · proj 8.1 · 99th-percentile game

    A 41-yard touchdown (6 for 90, 1 TD on 7 targets)

    Letdown−6.5
    Zach ErtzZach ErtzPHITE

    1.9 pts · proj 8.4 · 14th-percentile game

    1 for 9 on 2 targets

Projections for weeks before kickoff snapshots began are the same model run as of that week from earlier games only (no live injury or depth inputs).

Week 3 leaderboard

Scoring

Fantasy points minus our last projection before kickoff. The top and bottom of the list are shown; sort any column.

Week leaderboard, vs projection, ALL
Why
Kenyon SadiqKenyon SadiqNYJTEvs DET23.54.9+18.68 targets vs a projected 3 — Mitchell out
Brock BowersBrock BowersLVTEvs NO27.69.1+18.613 targets vs a projected 5
Tyler HigbeeTyler HigbeeLARTEvs DEN20.23.9+16.311 targets vs a projected 2
Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWRvs GB28.412.2+16.29 catches for 194 yards on 10 targets
Harold Fannin Jr.Harold Fannin Jr.CLETEvs CAR24.18.0+16.19 targets vs a projected 5
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRBvs GB35.319.5+15.82 touchdowns on 31 touches
Noah FantNoah FantNOTEvs LV19.33.9+15.42 touchdowns on 4 touches
Konata MumpfieldKonata MumpfieldLARWRvs DEN19.34.0+15.38 targets vs a projected 2
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRBvs NYJ41.426.2+15.23 touchdowns on 28 touches
Jeremiyah LoveJeremiyah LoveARIRBvs SF21.96.9+15.021 carries vs a projected 6 — Conner out
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRvs WAS35.420.9+14.52 touchdowns on 14 touches
Michael WilsonMichael WilsonARIWRvs SF25.911.6+14.317 targets vs a projected 7
Juwan JohnsonJuwan JohnsonNOTEvs LV23.39.1+14.22 touchdowns on 8 touches
Kalif RaymondKalif RaymondCHIWRvs PHI21.08.1+12.9A 41-yard touchdown (6 for 90, 1 TD on 7 targets)
George KittleGeorge KittleSFTEvs ARI26.213.3+12.92 touchdowns on 7 touches
Ollie Gordon IIOllie Gordon IIMIARBvs KC14.52.1+12.417 carries vs a projected 3 — Achane left early
Geno SmithGeno SmithNYJQBvs DET26.014.6+11.43 TD passes (31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD)
Garrett WilsonGarrett WilsonNYJWRvs DET26.715.4+11.310 catches for 107 yards on 13 targets
Brock PurdyBrock PurdySFQBvs ARI31.320.1+11.24 TD passes (15/27, 297 yds, 4 TD, 34 rush yds)
Wan'Dale RobinsonWan'Dale RobinsonTENWRvs NYG18.77.5+11.211 targets vs a projected 5
Mark AndrewsMark AndrewsBALTEvs DAL5.412.2−6.83 for 24 on 5 targets
Jerry JeudyJerry JeudyCLEWRvs CAR0.06.8−6.80 targets vs a projected 5
Oronde Gadsden IIOronde Gadsden IILACTEvs BUF0.07.0−7.00 for 0 on 3 targets
Breece HallBreece HallNYJRBvs DET8.515.5−7.0No touchdown on 16 touches (13 carries for 32; 3 for 23 on 3 targets)
Xavier WorthyXavier WorthyKCWRvs MIA4.011.1−7.12 targets vs a projected 6
Jameis WinstonJameis WinstonNYGQBvs TEN6.113.3−7.114/22, 118 yds
Dalton KincaidDalton KincaidBUFTEvs LAC3.811.4−7.6Lost a fumble (2 for 38 on 3 targets)
Bucky IrvingBucky IrvingTBRBvs MIN7.815.8−8.1No touchdown on 19 touches (15 carries for 46; 2 for 12 on 4 targets)
Hunter HenryHunter HenryNETEvs JAX1.59.6−8.12 targets vs a projected 5
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWRvs CLE3.812.4−8.6Played 36% of snaps (projected 75%)
Amon-Ra St. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownDETWRvs NYJ11.920.6−8.74 for 19, 1 TD on 8 targets
Chase BrownChase BrownCINRBvs PIT8.917.6−8.7No touchdown on 15 touches (13 carries for 61; 2 for 8 on 2 targets)
Jonathan TaylorJonathan TaylorINDRBvs HOU9.218.1−8.9No touchdown on 26 touches (23 carries for 68; 2 for 4 on 3 targets)
Brian Thomas Jr.Brian Thomas Jr.JAXWRvs NE1.810.7−8.91 target vs a projected 7
Jadarian PriceJadarian PriceSEARBvs WAS1.210.9−9.75 carries vs a projected 12
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWRvs TB5.215.5−10.3Played 12% of snaps (projected 92%)
Khalil ShakirKhalil ShakirBUFWRvs LAC1.612.3−10.73 targets vs a projected 6
Tetairoa McMillanTetairoa McMillanCARWRvs CLE3.715.9−12.25 targets vs a projected 9
Drake MayeDrake MayeNEQBvs JAX3.816.1−12.32 interceptions (14/25, 199 yds, 2 INT)
De'Von AchaneDe'Von AchaneMIARBvs KC1.717.7−16.0Played 5% of snaps (projected 73%)

Team defenses vs projection

Season-long scoring (DraftKings alongside). Points allowed leave out the opponent’s own return touchdowns and safeties, as ESPN and Yahoo score them.

Team defenses: actual fantasy points against the pregame projection
DefensePtsProjvs proj
MINMIN D/ST vs TB17.06.8(2–12)+10.3
LACLAC D/ST vs BUF14.03.8(-1–9)+10.2
DENDEN D/ST vs LAR14.05.9(1–11)+8.1
WASWAS D/ST vs SEA11.04.3(0–9)+6.7
JAXJAX D/ST vs NE13.06.5(1–12)+6.5
LVLV D/ST vs NO12.06.5(1–12)+5.5
CHICHI D/ST vs PHI11.05.7(1–11)+5.3
HOUHOU D/ST vs IND10.06.0(1–11)+4.0
ATLATL D/ST vs GB6.05.0(0–10)+1.0
NYGNYG D/ST vs TEN7.06.2(2–11)+0.8
DETDET D/ST vs NYJ7.06.3(2–11)+0.7
KCKC D/ST vs MIA7.06.4(2–11)+0.6
TENTEN D/ST vs NYG6.05.7(1–11)+0.3
CLECLE D/ST vs CAR5.05.4(1–11)−0.4
TBTB D/ST vs MIN5.05.7(1–11)−0.7
BALBAL D/ST vs DAL4.04.8(0–10)−0.8
PITPIT D/ST vs CIN5.06.3(1–12)−1.3
INDIND D/ST vs HOU4.05.3(1–10)−1.3
BUFBUF D/ST vs LAC5.06.6(2–12)−1.6
MIAMIA D/ST vs KC2.04.3(-1–9)−2.3
LARLAR D/ST vs DEN3.05.5(1–11)−2.5
NYJNYJ D/ST vs DET1.03.9(-1–9)−2.8
CARCAR D/ST vs CLE4.07.3(2–13)−3.2
CINCIN D/ST vs PIT3.06.3(2–11)−3.3
NONO D/ST vs LV2.06.5(2–12)−4.5
SEASEA D/ST vs WAS2.06.8(2–12)−4.8
SFSF D/ST vs ARI1.05.8(1–11)−4.8
NENE D/ST vs JAX0.04.9(0–10)−4.9
DALDAL D/ST vs BAL-1.04.0(-1–9)−5.0
ARIARI D/ST vs SF-1.04.1(-1–9)−5.1
PHIPHI D/ST vs CHI0.05.6(1–11)−5.6
GBGB D/ST vs ATL-1.06.6(2–11)−7.6

2026 season: over and under expected

Through Week 4, games with play-by-play only.

Scoring the most above what their usage usually produces (3+ games). History says about a quarter of that edge carries forward: sell-high candidates.

Most points over expected this season
Zay FlowersZay FlowersBALWR322.412.2+10.2Sell high
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR429.219.6+9.6Sell high
Brock PurdyBrock PurdySFQB425.115.9+9.2Sell high
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRB426.419.2+7.2Sell high
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQB428.121.2+6.9Sell high
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR428.121.4+6.6Sell high
Deebo Samuel Sr.Deebo Samuel Sr.SFWR414.58.6+5.8Sell high
Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBALQB419.814.0+5.7Sell high
George KittleGeorge KittleSFTE416.110.4+5.7Sell high
Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesKCQB420.915.2+5.7Sell high
Chuba HubbardChuba HubbardCARRB419.814.4+5.3Sell high
Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRB427.522.6+4.9Sell high
Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRB412.17.3+4.8Sell high
Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTE413.28.6+4.5Sell high
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWR315.010.4+4.5Sell high
Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRB422.418.0+4.4Sell high
Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTE314.810.6+4.3Sell high
Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWR414.310.2+4.2Sell high
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRB429.024.8+4.2Sell high
Josh CameronJosh CameronJAXWR38.14.0+4.1Sell high
Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWR411.27.2+4.1Sell high
Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB422.718.8+4.0Sell high
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR419.315.3+4.0Sell high
Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWR312.78.9+3.7Sell high
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWR317.413.8+3.6Sell high

Next: Ascension (rising usage) · Waiver wire · Projections

How this works

vs projection compares his fantasy points with the last projection we published before his game kicked off (mean, with the 10th–90th percentile range). While a game is on, the projection is scaled by the share of the game played, by quarter and clock.

Expected points (xFP) come from our own play-level model fitted on 2023–25 play-by-play: each target is valued by its air yards, field position and down, each carry by field position, down and whether it was a scramble, each pass attempt by air yards and field position. On 2024–25 games it was not fitted on, xFP averaged within 1–6% of actual points at every position and correlated 0.98 with ffopportunity’s public model.

FPOE = points − xFP. Across 2023–25 it barely carried from one week to the next (r = 0.05) while expected points did (r = 0.34): treat a big FPOE as regression risk, and big usage with a negative FPOE as a buy-low.

Sources: nflverse play-by-play and weekly stats, ESPN box scores (live)Updated Tue, Oct 6, 9:37 PM ET

Frequently asked questions

What does “over expected” mean here?

Two things. Versus projection: his fantasy points minus our pregame projection (the last one made before his game kicked off). Versus opportunity, or FPOE: his points minus what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and pass attempts from the same spots on the field (expected fantasy points, xFP).

Should I chase a big FPOE week?

Usually not. Across 2023–25 a player’s FPOE one week had almost no relationship with the next (correlation 0.05), and only about a quarter of a half-season’s FPOE carried into the second half. A big positive FPOE is a sell-high signal; a big negative FPOE with heavy usage is a buy-low. Expected points from usage hold up far better (week-to-week correlation 0.34).

What is the “pace” number during games?

While a game is on, his projection is scaled by how much of the game has been played (by quarter and clock), so a receiver with 12 points at halftime is compared with half of his projection. It is a rough guide: usage is not spread evenly across a game. Final numbers replace it after the game.

When do the final numbers land?

Live numbers come from box scores every 15 minutes during games. Expected points need play-by-play, which nflverse publishes the morning after; FPOE and the final leaderboard update then (Monday night games on Tuesday).