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2026 season · Week 1

Over Expected: who beat expectations in Week 1

Every game’s biggest overperformer and letdown against our pregame projection, live on game days, then the week’s leaders in fantasy points over expected (FPOE): points beyond what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and throws. Big FPOE weeks rarely repeat; the usage behind them does.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 9:37 PM ET

Game by game

  • NE NE10@SEA SEA13Final
    Beat expectations+2.3
    Brady RussellBrady RussellSEARB

    4.0 pts · proj 1.7

    2 for 20 on 2 targets

    Letdown−15.5
    Sam DarnoldSam DarnoldSEAQB

    0.5 pts · proj 16.0 · 2nd-percentile game

    Played 10% of snaps (projected 97%)

  • SF SF27@LAR LAR7Final
    Beat expectations+8.7
    Demarcus RobinsonDemarcus RobinsonSFWR

    13.0 pts · proj 4.3 · 99th-percentile game

    2 for 50, 1 TD on 3 targets

    Letdown−15.2
    Puka NacuaPuka NacuaLARWR

    12.4 pts · proj 27.6 · 13th-percentile game

    5 for 74 on 9 targets

  • CHI CHI59@CAR CAR37Final
    Beat expectations+22.4
    Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWR

    33.8 pts · proj 11.4 · 99th-percentile game

    A 51-yard touchdown (8 for 138, 2 TD on 9 targets)

    Letdown−16.4
    Colston LovelandColston LovelandCHITE

    0.0 pts · proj 16.4 · 4th-percentile game

    2 targets vs a projected 9

  • TB TB27@CIN CIN33Final
    Beat expectations+11.8
    Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTE

    18.8 pts · proj 7.0 · 99th-percentile game

    5 for 78, 1 TD on 7 targets

    Letdown−20.7
    Ja'Marr ChaseJa'Marr ChaseCINWR

    3.2 pts · proj 23.9 · 4th-percentile game

    4 targets vs a projected 12

  • NO NO30@DET DET31Final
    Beat expectations+10.2
    Devaughn VeleDevaughn VeleNOWR

    19.9 pts · proj 9.8 · 93rd-percentile game

    7 for 69, 1 TD on 9 targets

    Letdown−12.0
    Jameson WilliamsJameson WilliamsDETWR

    8.5 pts · proj 20.5 · 14th-percentile game

    4 for 45 on 9 targets

  • BUF BUF36@HOU HOU31Final
    Beat expectations+21.8
    David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURB

    28.9 pts · proj 7.1 · 99th-percentile game

    20 carries vs a projected 7 — Jordan out

    Letdown−8.6
    James CookJames CookBUFRB

    9.9 pts · proj 18.5

    No touchdown on 17 touches (13 carries for 57; 3 for 12 on 4 targets)

  • BAL BAL41@IND IND23Final
    Beat expectations+11.2
    Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB

    35.3 pts · proj 24.1

    3 touchdowns on 25 touches

    Letdown−10.6
    Rashod BatemanRashod BatemanBALWR

    0.0 pts · proj 10.6 · 7th-percentile game

    1 target vs a projected 5

  • CLE CLE10@JAX JAX34Final
    Beat expectations+7.5
    Trevor LawrenceTrevor LawrenceJAXQB

    26.1 pts · proj 18.6

    4 TD passes (18/23, 245 yds, 4 TD)

    Letdown−16.2
    Chris Rodriguez Jr.Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAXRB

    2.3 pts · proj 18.5 · 5th-percentile game

    6 carries vs a projected 18

  • ATL ATL13@PIT PIT20Final
    Beat expectations+10.6
    Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRB

    31.3 pts · proj 20.7 · 85th-percentile game

    10 targets vs a projected 5

    Letdown−17.6
    Rico DowdleRico DowdlePITRB

    4.1 pts · proj 21.7 · 6th-percentile game

    8 carries vs a projected 19

  • NYJ NYJ23@TEN TEN10Final
    Beat expectations+2.7
    Breece HallBreece HallNYJRB

    19.8 pts · proj 17.1

    102 rushing yards on 22 carries

    Letdown−12.4
    Tony PollardTony PollardTENRB

    4.4 pts · proj 16.9 · 9th-percentile game

    7 carries vs a projected 20

  • ARI ARI26@LAC LAC14Final
    Beat expectations+8.4
    Kendrick BourneKendrick BourneARIWR

    15.5 pts · proj 7.0 · 95th-percentile game

    8 targets vs a projected 4

    Letdown−10.4
    Omarion HamptonOmarion HamptonLACRB

    8.3 pts · proj 18.7 · 14th-percentile game

    0 targets vs a projected 4

  • MIA MIA13@LV LV27Final
    Beat expectations+12.4
    Ashton JeantyAshton JeantyLVRB

    32.7 pts · proj 20.3 · 88th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 29 touches

    Letdown−13.3
    De'Von AchaneDe'Von AchaneMIARB

    10.6 pts · proj 23.9 · 12th-percentile game

    11 carries vs a projected 20

  • GB GB22@MIN MIN39Final
    Beat expectations+19.4
    Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR

    32.7 pts · proj 13.3 · 99th-percentile game

    A 81-yard touchdown (6 for 147, 2 TD on 8 targets)

    Letdown−12.4
    Jordan AddisonJordan AddisonMINWR

    0.0 pts · proj 12.4 · 5th-percentile game

    2 targets vs a projected 7

  • WAS WAS22@PHI PHI24Final
    Beat expectations+9.5
    Dallas GoedertDallas GoedertPHITE

    23.7 pts · proj 14.2 · 87th-percentile game

    A 43-yard touchdown (4 for 77, 2 TD on 5 targets)

    Letdown−12.2
    Saquon BarkleySaquon BarkleyPHIRB

    9.0 pts · proj 21.2 · 13th-percentile game

    No touchdown on 17 touches (15 carries for 83; 1 for -3 on 2 targets)

  • DAL DAL20@NYG NYG28Final
    Beat expectations+19.6
    Isaiah LikelyIsaiah LikelyNYGTE

    27.8 pts · proj 8.2 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 8 touches

    Letdown−20.1
    Tyrone Tracy Jr.Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYGRB

    -0.6 pts · proj 19.5 · 3rd-percentile game

    Played 3% of snaps (projected 61%)

  • DEN DEN10@KC KC31Final
    Beat expectations+22.8
    Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRB

    34.1 pts · proj 11.3 · 99th-percentile game

    23 carries vs a projected 9 — Pacheco out

    Letdown−11.7
    J.K. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsDENRB

    3.6 pts · proj 15.3 · 9th-percentile game

    8 carries vs a projected 17

Projections for weeks before kickoff snapshots began are the same model run as of that week from earlier games only (no live injury or depth inputs).

Week 1 leaderboard

Scoring

Fantasy points minus our last projection before kickoff. The top and bottom of the list are shown; sort any column.

Week leaderboard, vs projection, ALL
Why
Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRBvs DEN34.111.3+22.823 carries vs a projected 9 — Pacheco out
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWRvs CHI33.811.4+22.4A 51-yard touchdown (8 for 138, 2 TD on 9 targets)
David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURBvs BUF28.97.1+21.820 carries vs a projected 7 — Jordan out
Isaiah LikelyIsaiah LikelyNYGTEvs DAL27.88.2+19.62 touchdowns on 8 touches
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWRvs MIN32.713.3+19.4A 81-yard touchdown (6 for 147, 2 TD on 8 targets)
Caleb WilliamsCaleb WilliamsCHIQBvs CAR37.318.6+18.610 carries vs a projected 4
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQBvs HOU35.717.9+17.823 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs on top of 334 passing
Bryce YoungBryce YoungCARQBvs CHI31.416.1+15.43 TD passes (23/37, 361 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds, 1 rush TD)
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWRvs GB31.217.5+13.72 touchdowns on 9 touches
Ashton JeantyAshton JeantyLVRBvs MIA32.720.3+12.42 touchdowns on 29 touches
Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTEvs TB18.87.0+11.85 for 78, 1 TD on 7 targets
Dalton KincaidDalton KincaidBUFTEvs HOU18.06.7+11.35 catches for 130 yards on 6 targets
Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRBvs IND35.324.1+11.23 touchdowns on 25 touches
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRBvs PIT31.320.7+10.610 targets vs a projected 5
Devaughn VeleDevaughn VeleNOWRvs DET19.99.8+10.27 for 69, 1 TD on 9 targets
DJ MooreDJ MooreBUFWRvs HOU21.011.3+9.7A 43-yard touchdown (5 for 100, 1 TD on 8 targets)
Jaxson DartJaxson DartNYGQBvs DAL26.617.0+9.63 TD passes (23/29, 230 yds, 3 TD, 54 rush yds)
Dallas GoedertDallas GoedertPHITEvs WAS23.714.2+9.5A 43-yard touchdown (4 for 77, 2 TD on 5 targets)
Noah FantNoah FantNOTEvs DET13.34.4+8.98 targets vs a projected 2 — Austin Jr. left early
D'Andre SwiftD'Andre SwiftCHIRBvs CAR32.423.5+8.93 touchdowns on 19 touches
George PickensGeorge PickensDALWRvs NYG5.817.2−11.43 for 28 on 6 targets
Jaylen WaddleJaylen WaddleDENWRvs KC1.212.9−11.73 targets vs a projected 8
Emanuel WilsonEmanuel WilsonSEARBvs NE0.312.0−11.72 carries vs a projected 12
J.K. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsDENRBvs KC3.615.3−11.78 carries vs a projected 17
Terry McLaurinTerry McLaurinWASWRvs PHI3.415.3−11.84 targets vs a projected 9
Jameson WilliamsJameson WilliamsDETWRvs NO8.520.5−12.04 for 45 on 9 targets
Saquon BarkleySaquon BarkleyPHIRBvs WAS9.021.2−12.2No touchdown on 17 touches (15 carries for 83; 1 for -3 on 2 targets)
Jordan AddisonJordan AddisonMINWRvs GB0.012.4−12.42 targets vs a projected 7
Tony PollardTony PollardTENRBvs NYJ4.416.9−12.47 carries vs a projected 20
De'Von AchaneDe'Von AchaneMIARBvs LV10.623.9−13.311 carries vs a projected 20
Romeo DoubsRomeo DoubsNEWRvs SEA0.013.4−13.43 targets vs a projected 8
A.J. BrownA.J. BrownNEWRvs SEA5.619.0−13.4Played 44% of snaps (projected 88%)
Matthew StaffordMatthew StaffordLARQBvs SF4.118.3−14.215/25, 155 yds, 1 INT
Puka NacuaPuka NacuaLARWRvs SF12.427.6−15.25 for 74 on 9 targets
Sam DarnoldSam DarnoldSEAQBvs NE0.516.0−15.5Played 10% of snaps (projected 97%)
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAXRBvs CLE2.318.5−16.26 carries vs a projected 18
Colston LovelandColston LovelandCHITEvs CAR0.016.4−16.42 targets vs a projected 9
Rico DowdleRico DowdlePITRBvs ATL4.121.7−17.68 carries vs a projected 19
Tyrone Tracy Jr.Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYGRBvs DAL-0.619.5−20.1Played 3% of snaps (projected 61%)
Ja'Marr ChaseJa'Marr ChaseCINWRvs TB3.223.9−20.74 targets vs a projected 12

Team defenses vs projection

Season-long scoring (DraftKings alongside). Points allowed leave out the opponent’s own return touchdowns and safeties, as ESPN and Yahoo score them.

Team defenses: actual fantasy points against the pregame projection
DefensePtsProjvs proj
CINCIN D/ST vs TB18.05.5(1–11)+12.5
PITPIT D/ST vs ATL17.06.5(2–12)+10.5
SEASEA D/ST vs NE12.06.1(1–11)+5.9
LVLV D/ST vs MIA12.06.2(2–11)+5.8
KCKC D/ST vs DEN11.05.5(1–10)+5.5
ARIARI D/ST vs LAC10.04.8(0–10)+5.2
JAXJAX D/ST vs CLE12.07.5(3–13)+4.5
TBTB D/ST vs CIN9.04.8(0–10)+4.2
DETDET D/ST vs NO10.06.3(2–12)+3.7
NYJNYJ D/ST vs TEN8.05.3(1–10)+2.7
SFSF D/ST vs LAR7.04.5(0–10)+2.5
MINMIN D/ST vs GB8.05.6(1–11)+2.4
CHICHI D/ST vs CAR7.05.8(1–11)+1.2
BALBAL D/ST vs IND6.05.6(1–11)+0.4
BUFBUF D/ST vs HOU6.05.6(1–11)+0.4
NENE D/ST vs SEA5.05.2(0–11)−0.2
ATLATL D/ST vs PIT5.05.4(0–11)−0.4
WASWAS D/ST vs PHI3.04.8(0–10)−1.8
MIAMIA D/ST vs LV4.06.4(2–12)−2.4
DALDAL D/ST vs NYG3.05.6(1–11)−2.6
NONO D/ST vs DET2.04.7(-1–10)−2.7
DENDEN D/ST vs KC3.06.0(1–11)−3.0
NYGNYG D/ST vs DAL2.05.0(0–10)−3.0
GBGB D/ST vs MIN2.05.5(0–11)−3.4
PHIPHI D/ST vs WAS3.06.5(2–12)−3.5
INDIND D/ST vs BAL1.04.8(0–10)−3.8
LARLAR D/ST vs SF2.06.0(1–11)−4.0
CLECLE D/ST vs JAX0.05.2(0–10)−5.2
LACLAC D/ST vs ARI1.06.7(2–12)−5.7
CARCAR D/ST vs CHI-1.04.8(0–10)−5.8
TENTEN D/ST vs NYJ0.06.5(2–11)−6.5
HOUHOU D/ST vs BUF-1.05.8(1–11)−6.8

2026 season: over and under expected

Through Week 4, games with play-by-play only.

Scoring the most above what their usage usually produces (3+ games). History says about a quarter of that edge carries forward: sell-high candidates.

Most points over expected this season
Zay FlowersZay FlowersBALWR322.412.2+10.2Sell high
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR429.219.6+9.6Sell high
Brock PurdyBrock PurdySFQB425.115.9+9.2Sell high
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRB426.419.2+7.2Sell high
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQB428.121.2+6.9Sell high
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR428.121.4+6.6Sell high
Deebo Samuel Sr.Deebo Samuel Sr.SFWR414.58.6+5.8Sell high
Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBALQB419.814.0+5.7Sell high
George KittleGeorge KittleSFTE416.110.4+5.7Sell high
Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesKCQB420.915.2+5.7Sell high
Chuba HubbardChuba HubbardCARRB419.814.4+5.3Sell high
Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRB427.522.6+4.9Sell high
Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRB412.17.3+4.8Sell high
Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTE413.28.6+4.5Sell high
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWR315.010.4+4.5Sell high
Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRB422.418.0+4.4Sell high
Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTE314.810.6+4.3Sell high
Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWR414.310.2+4.2Sell high
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRB429.024.8+4.2Sell high
Josh CameronJosh CameronJAXWR38.14.0+4.1Sell high
Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWR411.27.2+4.1Sell high
Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB422.718.8+4.0Sell high
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR419.315.3+4.0Sell high
Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWR312.78.9+3.7Sell high
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWR317.413.8+3.6Sell high

Next: Ascension (rising usage) · Waiver wire · Projections

How this works

vs projection compares his fantasy points with the last projection we published before his game kicked off (mean, with the 10th–90th percentile range). While a game is on, the projection is scaled by the share of the game played, by quarter and clock.

Expected points (xFP) come from our own play-level model fitted on 2023–25 play-by-play: each target is valued by its air yards, field position and down, each carry by field position, down and whether it was a scramble, each pass attempt by air yards and field position. On 2024–25 games it was not fitted on, xFP averaged within 1–6% of actual points at every position and correlated 0.98 with ffopportunity’s public model.

FPOE = points − xFP. Across 2023–25 it barely carried from one week to the next (r = 0.05) while expected points did (r = 0.34): treat a big FPOE as regression risk, and big usage with a negative FPOE as a buy-low.

Sources: nflverse play-by-play and weekly stats, ESPN box scores (live)Updated Tue, Oct 6, 9:37 PM ET

Frequently asked questions

What does “over expected” mean here?

Two things. Versus projection: his fantasy points minus our pregame projection (the last one made before his game kicked off). Versus opportunity, or FPOE: his points minus what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and pass attempts from the same spots on the field (expected fantasy points, xFP).

Should I chase a big FPOE week?

Usually not. Across 2023–25 a player’s FPOE one week had almost no relationship with the next (correlation 0.05), and only about a quarter of a half-season’s FPOE carried into the second half. A big positive FPOE is a sell-high signal; a big negative FPOE with heavy usage is a buy-low. Expected points from usage hold up far better (week-to-week correlation 0.34).

What is the “pace” number during games?

While a game is on, his projection is scaled by how much of the game has been played (by quarter and clock), so a receiver with 12 points at halftime is compared with half of his projection. It is a rough guide: usage is not spread evenly across a game. Final numbers replace it after the game.

When do the final numbers land?

Live numbers come from box scores every 15 minutes during games. Expected points need play-by-play, which nflverse publishes the morning after; FPOE and the final leaderboard update then (Monday night games on Tuesday).