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2026 season · Week 2

Over Expected: who beat expectations in Week 2

Every game’s biggest overperformer and letdown against our pregame projection, live on game days, then the week’s leaders in fantasy points over expected (FPOE): points beyond what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and throws. Big FPOE weeks rarely repeat; the usage behind them does.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 9:37 PM ET

Game by game

  • DET DET31@BUF BUF41Final
    Beat expectations+17.2
    Amon-Ra St. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownDETWR

    35.2 pts · proj 18.0 · 96th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 13 touches

    Letdown−13.8
    DJ MooreDJ MooreBUFWR

    -0.1 pts · proj 13.7 · 5th-percentile game

    Played 31% of snaps (projected 84%)

  • CAR CAR34@ATL ATL3Final
    Beat expectations+14.8
    Darren WallerDarren WallerCARTE

    18.3 pts · proj 3.5 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 3 touches

    Letdown−13.2
    Cooper RushCooper RushATLQB

    -0.6 pts · proj 12.6 · 2nd-percentile game

    17 pass attempts vs a projected 30

  • NO NO24@BAL BAL17Final
    Beat expectations+13.3
    Rashod BatemanRashod BatemanBALWR

    21.8 pts · proj 8.5 · 98th-percentile game

    9 targets vs a projected 5 — Flowers out

    Letdown−4.6
    Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBALQB

    14.8 pts · proj 19.4

    21/30, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 34 rush yds

  • MIN MIN9@CHI CHI3Final
    Beat expectations+1.4
    DeeJay DallasDeeJay DallasMINRB

    3.0 pts · proj 1.6

    2 carries for 8; 1 for 12 on 1 target

    Letdown−11.1
    Caleb WilliamsCaleb WilliamsCHIQB

    7.7 pts · proj 18.8 · 10th-percentile game

    15/26, 138 yds, 1 INT, 42 rush yds

  • CIN CIN20@HOU HOU6Final
    Beat expectations+15.9
    Dalton SchultzDalton SchultzHOUTE

    26.0 pts · proj 10.1 · 99th-percentile game

    14 targets vs a projected 6 — Higgins out

    Letdown−5.1
    David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURB

    4.4 pts · proj 9.5

    6 carries for 10; 2 for 14 on 2 targets

  • PIT PIT3@NE NE20Final
    Beat expectations+6.8
    Germie BernardGermie BernardPITWR

    7.5 pts · proj 0.7 · 99th-percentile game

    8 targets vs a projected 0 — Pittman out

    Letdown−11.0
    Rhamondre StevensonRhamondre StevensonNERB

    3.6 pts · proj 14.6 · 9th-percentile game

    Played 36% of snaps (projected 65%)

  • GB GB20@NYJ NYJ17Final
    Beat expectations+7.2
    Isaiah WilliamsIsaiah WilliamsNYJWR

    10.8 pts · proj 3.6 · 99th-percentile game

    6 for 34 on 6 targets; 1 carry for 14

    Letdown−4.9
    Tucker KraftTucker KraftGBTE

    3.5 pts · proj 8.4

    2 for 15 on 3 targets

  • CLE CLE23@TB TB19Final
    Beat expectations+12.3
    Denzel BostonDenzel BostonCLEWR

    20.5 pts · proj 8.2 · 98th-percentile game

    A 55-yard touchdown (5 for 95, 1 TD on 7 targets)

    Letdown−5.0
    Baker MayfieldBaker MayfieldTBQB

    12.2 pts · proj 17.1

    21/34, 182 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 29 rush yds

  • PHI PHI24@TEN TEN20Final
    Beat expectations+16.0
    DeVonta SmithDeVonta SmithPHIWR

    27.7 pts · proj 11.7 · 99th-percentile game

    13 targets vs a projected 7 — Goedert left early

    Letdown−11.9
    Saquon BarkleySaquon BarkleyPHIRB

    3.0 pts · proj 14.9 · 7th-percentile game

    Played 16% of snaps (projected 73%)

  • JAX JAX13@DEN DEN20Final
    Beat expectations+13.7
    Jonah ColemanJonah ColemanDENRB

    14.8 pts · proj 1.1 · 99th-percentile game

    10 carries vs a projected 1 — Harvey out

    Letdown−9.3
    Trevor LawrenceTrevor LawrenceJAXQB

    6.2 pts · proj 15.5 · 10th-percentile game

    17/29, 189 yds, 1 INT

  • LV LV26@LAC LAC14Final
    Beat expectations+14.9
    Cody WhiteCody WhiteLVWR

    16.4 pts · proj 1.5 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 2 touches

    Letdown−11.1
    Justin HerbertJustin HerbertLACQB

    7.9 pts · proj 18.9 · 10th-percentile game

    2 interceptions (15/27, 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT)

  • SEA SEA31@ARI ARI7Final
    Beat expectations+22.6
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR

    42.5 pts · proj 19.9 · 99th-percentile game

    A 82-yard touchdown (9 for 155, 3 TD on 11 targets)

    Letdown−7.3
    Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettARIQB

    6.5 pts · proj 13.8 · 14th-percentile game

    17/28, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

  • WAS WAS20@DAL DAL37Final
    Beat expectations+19.9
    CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR

    35.3 pts · proj 15.4 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 9 touches

    Letdown−9.9
    Javonte WilliamsJavonte WilliamsDALRB

    8.0 pts · proj 17.9 · 15th-percentile game

    No touchdown on 16 touches (12 carries for 30; 3 for 20 on 4 targets)

  • MIA MIA13@SF SF35Final
    Beat expectations+13.6
    Ryan MillerRyan MillerMIAWR

    14.7 pts · proj 1.1 · 99th-percentile game

    A 77-yard touchdown (1 for 77, 1 TD on 1 target)

    Letdown−7.3
    Caleb DouglasCaleb DouglasMIAWR

    3.9 pts · proj 11.3 · 13th-percentile game

    3 targets vs a projected 7

  • IND IND30@KC KC33Final
    Beat expectations+15.2
    Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTE

    25.1 pts · proj 9.9 · 99th-percentile game

    11 targets vs a projected 5

    Letdown−9.8
    Alec PierceAlec PierceINDWR

    2.1 pts · proj 11.8 · 10th-percentile game

    Played 26% of snaps (projected 82%)

  • NYG NYG6@LAR LAR28Final
    Beat expectations+24.8
    Davante AdamsDavante AdamsLARWR

    39.5 pts · proj 14.7 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 10 touches

    Letdown−15.2
    Jaxson DartJaxson DartNYGQB

    0.8 pts · proj 16.0 · 2nd-percentile game

    Played 12% of snaps (projected 94%)

Projections for weeks before kickoff snapshots began are the same model run as of that week from earlier games only (no live injury or depth inputs).

Week 2 leaderboard

Scoring

Fantasy points minus our last projection before kickoff. The top and bottom of the list are shown; sort any column.

Week leaderboard, vs projection, ALL
Why
Davante AdamsDavante AdamsLARWRvs NYG39.514.7+24.82 touchdowns on 10 touches
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRvs ARI42.519.9+22.6A 82-yard touchdown (9 for 155, 3 TD on 11 targets)
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWRvs WAS35.315.4+19.92 touchdowns on 9 touches
Amon-Ra St. BrownAmon-Ra St. BrownDETWRvs BUF35.218.0+17.22 touchdowns on 13 touches
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQBvs DET40.823.8+17.111 carries vs a projected 6
DeVonta SmithDeVonta SmithPHIWRvs TEN27.711.7+16.013 targets vs a projected 7 — Goedert left early
Dalton SchultzDalton SchultzHOUTEvs CIN26.010.1+15.914 targets vs a projected 6 — Higgins out
Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTEvs IND25.19.9+15.211 targets vs a projected 5
Cody WhiteCody WhiteLVWRvs LAC16.41.5+14.92 touchdowns on 2 touches
Darren WallerDarren WallerCARTEvs ATL18.33.5+14.82 touchdowns on 3 touches
Terrance FergusonTerrance FergusonLARTEvs NYG17.43.1+14.39 targets vs a projected 2 — Nacua out
Tre TuckerTre TuckerLVWRvs LAC22.98.8+14.1A 40-yard touchdown (5 for 119, 1 TD on 7 targets)
Dalton KincaidDalton KincaidBUFTEvs DET22.58.7+13.87 for 95, 1 TD on 8 targets
Jonah ColemanJonah ColemanDENRBvs JAX14.81.1+13.710 carries vs a projected 1 — Harvey out
Ryan MillerRyan MillerMIAWRvs SF14.71.1+13.6A 77-yard touchdown (1 for 77, 1 TD on 1 target)
Rashod BatemanRashod BatemanBALWRvs NO21.88.5+13.39 targets vs a projected 5 — Flowers out
Jared GoffJared GoffDETQBvs BUF29.816.9+12.94 TD passes (26/38, 327 yds, 4 TD)
Denzel BostonDenzel BostonCLEWRvs TB20.58.2+12.3A 55-yard touchdown (5 for 95, 1 TD on 7 targets)
Jaylen WaddleJaylen WaddleDENWRvs JAX21.89.9+11.910 targets vs a projected 6
Nate AdkinsNate AdkinsDENTEvs JAX12.81.1+11.83 for 32, 1 TD on 3 targets; 1 carry for 6
Malik NabersMalik NabersNYGWRvs LAR1.18.9−7.81 for 1 on 4 targets
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWRvs CHI8.516.5−8.03 for 55 on 6 targets
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAXRBvs DEN1.39.6−8.3Played 22% of snaps (projected 50%)
Jameson WilliamsJameson WilliamsDETWRvs BUF5.313.6−8.34 targets vs a projected 7
Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersPITQBvs NE4.012.4−8.523/39, 187 yds, 1 INT
Colston LovelandColston LovelandCHITEvs MIN1.39.9−8.61 for 3 on 3 targets
Quentin JohnstonQuentin JohnstonLACWRvs LV2.411.0−8.61 for 7 on 5 targets; 1 carry for 7
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRBvs CAR11.120.1−9.0No touchdown on 20 touches (16 carries for 72; 3 for 9 on 4 targets)
Drake MayeDrake MayeNEQBvs PIT8.017.2−9.12 carries vs a projected 5
Dallas GoedertDallas GoedertPHITEvs TEN1.410.6−9.2Played 25% of snaps (projected 83%)
Trevor LawrenceTrevor LawrenceJAXQBvs DEN6.215.5−9.317/29, 189 yds, 1 INT
Alec PierceAlec PierceINDWRvs KC2.111.8−9.8Played 26% of snaps (projected 82%)
Javonte WilliamsJavonte WilliamsDALRBvs WAS8.017.9−9.9No touchdown on 16 touches (12 carries for 30; 3 for 20 on 4 targets)
Rhamondre StevensonRhamondre StevensonNERBvs PIT3.614.6−11.0Played 36% of snaps (projected 65%)
Justin HerbertJustin HerbertLACQBvs LV7.918.9−11.12 interceptions (15/27, 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT)
Caleb WilliamsCaleb WilliamsCHIQBvs MIN7.718.8−11.115/26, 138 yds, 1 INT, 42 rush yds
Saquon BarkleySaquon BarkleyPHIRBvs TEN3.014.9−11.9Played 16% of snaps (projected 73%)
Cooper RushCooper RushATLQBvs CAR-0.612.6−13.217 pass attempts vs a projected 30
DJ MooreDJ MooreBUFWRvs DET-0.113.7−13.8Played 31% of snaps (projected 84%)
Jaxson DartJaxson DartNYGQBvs LAR0.816.0−15.2Played 12% of snaps (projected 94%)

Team defenses vs projection

Season-long scoring (DraftKings alongside). Points allowed leave out the opponent’s own return touchdowns and safeties, as ESPN and Yahoo score them.

Team defenses: actual fantasy points against the pregame projection
DefensePtsProjvs proj
CARCAR D/ST vs ATL23.06.3(2–11)+16.7
NENE D/ST vs PIT18.05.7(1–10)+12.3
MINMIN D/ST vs CHI14.04.9(0–10)+9.1
LVLV D/ST vs LAC12.05.9(1–11)+6.1
NONO D/ST vs BAL8.04.2(-1–9)+3.8
CINCIN D/ST vs HOU8.05.4(0–11)+2.6
TENTEN D/ST vs PHI7.04.8(0–10)+2.2
LARLAR D/ST vs NYG8.05.9(1–11)+2.1
PITPIT D/ST vs NE8.06.6(1–12)+1.4
DENDEN D/ST vs JAX7.05.7(1–11)+1.3
SFSF D/ST vs MIA7.06.8(2–12)+0.2
NYJNYJ D/ST vs GB5.04.8(0–10)+0.2
CLECLE D/ST vs TB5.04.9(0–10)+0.1
SEASEA D/ST vs ARI7.07.0(2–12.1)0.0
NYGNYG D/ST vs LAR4.04.3(-1–9)−0.3
CHICHI D/ST vs MIN6.06.8(2–12)−0.8
GBGB D/ST vs NYJ5.05.8(1–11)−0.8
HOUHOU D/ST vs CIN5.06.2(2–12)−1.2
BUFBUF D/ST vs DET3.05.2(0–10)−2.2
LACLAC D/ST vs LV4.06.8(2–12)−2.8
DALDAL D/ST vs WAS2.04.9(0–10)−2.9
ARIARI D/ST vs SEA2.05.5(1–10)−3.4
JAXJAX D/ST vs DEN2.06.0(1–12)−4.0
INDIND D/ST vs KC1.05.0(0–10)−4.0
BALBAL D/ST vs NO3.07.2(2–13)−4.2
ATLATL D/ST vs CAR1.05.5(1–10)−4.5
PHIPHI D/ST vs TEN2.06.8(2–12)−4.8
KCKC D/ST vs IND1.06.0(1–11)−5.0
WASWAS D/ST vs DAL-1.04.3(0–9)−5.3
TBTB D/ST vs CLE2.07.4(2–13)−5.4
DETDET D/ST vs BUF-1.04.7(0–10)−5.7
MIAMIA D/ST vs SF-3.04.6(-1–10)−7.6

2026 season: over and under expected

Through Week 4, games with play-by-play only.

Scoring the most above what their usage usually produces (3+ games). History says about a quarter of that edge carries forward: sell-high candidates.

Most points over expected this season
Zay FlowersZay FlowersBALWR322.412.2+10.2Sell high
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR429.219.6+9.6Sell high
Brock PurdyBrock PurdySFQB425.115.9+9.2Sell high
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRB426.419.2+7.2Sell high
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQB428.121.2+6.9Sell high
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR428.121.4+6.6Sell high
Deebo Samuel Sr.Deebo Samuel Sr.SFWR414.58.6+5.8Sell high
Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBALQB419.814.0+5.7Sell high
George KittleGeorge KittleSFTE416.110.4+5.7Sell high
Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesKCQB420.915.2+5.7Sell high
Chuba HubbardChuba HubbardCARRB419.814.4+5.3Sell high
Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRB427.522.6+4.9Sell high
Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRB412.17.3+4.8Sell high
Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTE413.28.6+4.5Sell high
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWR315.010.4+4.5Sell high
Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRB422.418.0+4.4Sell high
Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTE314.810.6+4.3Sell high
Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWR414.310.2+4.2Sell high
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRB429.024.8+4.2Sell high
Josh CameronJosh CameronJAXWR38.14.0+4.1Sell high
Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWR411.27.2+4.1Sell high
Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB422.718.8+4.0Sell high
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR419.315.3+4.0Sell high
Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWR312.78.9+3.7Sell high
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWR317.413.8+3.6Sell high

Next: Ascension (rising usage) · Waiver wire · Projections

How this works

vs projection compares his fantasy points with the last projection we published before his game kicked off (mean, with the 10th–90th percentile range). While a game is on, the projection is scaled by the share of the game played, by quarter and clock.

Expected points (xFP) come from our own play-level model fitted on 2023–25 play-by-play: each target is valued by its air yards, field position and down, each carry by field position, down and whether it was a scramble, each pass attempt by air yards and field position. On 2024–25 games it was not fitted on, xFP averaged within 1–6% of actual points at every position and correlated 0.98 with ffopportunity’s public model.

FPOE = points − xFP. Across 2023–25 it barely carried from one week to the next (r = 0.05) while expected points did (r = 0.34): treat a big FPOE as regression risk, and big usage with a negative FPOE as a buy-low.

Sources: nflverse play-by-play and weekly stats, ESPN box scores (live)Updated Tue, Oct 6, 9:37 PM ET

Frequently asked questions

What does “over expected” mean here?

Two things. Versus projection: his fantasy points minus our pregame projection (the last one made before his game kicked off). Versus opportunity, or FPOE: his points minus what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and pass attempts from the same spots on the field (expected fantasy points, xFP).

Should I chase a big FPOE week?

Usually not. Across 2023–25 a player’s FPOE one week had almost no relationship with the next (correlation 0.05), and only about a quarter of a half-season’s FPOE carried into the second half. A big positive FPOE is a sell-high signal; a big negative FPOE with heavy usage is a buy-low. Expected points from usage hold up far better (week-to-week correlation 0.34).

What is the “pace” number during games?

While a game is on, his projection is scaled by how much of the game has been played (by quarter and clock), so a receiver with 12 points at halftime is compared with half of his projection. It is a rough guide: usage is not spread evenly across a game. Final numbers replace it after the game.

When do the final numbers land?

Live numbers come from box scores every 15 minutes during games. Expected points need play-by-play, which nflverse publishes the morning after; FPOE and the final leaderboard update then (Monday night games on Tuesday).