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2026 season · Week 4

Over Expected: who beat expectations in Week 4

Every game’s biggest overperformer and letdown against our pregame projection, live on game days, then the week’s leaders in fantasy points over expected (FPOE): points beyond what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and throws. Big FPOE weeks rarely repeat; the usage behind them does.

Updated Sun, Oct 11, 9:45 AM ET

Game by game

  • PIT PIT24@CLE CLE27Final
    Beat expectations+12.2
    Quinshon JudkinsQuinshon JudkinsCLERB

    21.6 pts · proj 9.4 · 99th-percentile game

    7 targets vs a projected 2

    Letdown−5.2
    Michael PittmanMichael PittmanPITWR

    3.5 pts · proj 8.7

    2 for 15 on 4 targets

  • IND IND30@WAS WAS13Final
    Beat expectations+6.7
    Laquon TreadwellLaquon TreadwellINDWR

    9.2 pts · proj 2.5 · 99th-percentile game

    6 targets vs a projected 1 — Allen out

    Letdown−11.0
    Josh DownsJosh DownsINDWR

    4.6 pts · proj 15.6 · 10th-percentile game

    4 targets vs a projected 9

  • TEN TEN18@BAL BAL24Final
    Beat expectations+11.3
    Carnell TateCarnell TateTENWR

    21.5 pts · proj 10.2 · 97th-percentile game

    12 targets vs a projected 7

    Letdown−5.7
    Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB

    15.9 pts · proj 21.6

    23 carries for 73, 1 TD; 2 for 6 on 2 targets

  • NE NE29@BUF BUF26Final
    Beat expectations+15.4
    Keon ColemanKeon ColemanBUFWR

    23.6 pts · proj 8.2 · 99th-percentile game

    6 catches for 116 yards on 7 targets

    Letdown−9.3
    DJ MooreDJ MooreBUFWR

    2.7 pts · proj 12.0 · 11th-percentile game

    Played 39% of snaps (projected 71%)

  • NYJ NYJ12@CHI CHI23Final
    Beat expectations+19.2
    Kyle MonangaiKyle MonangaiCHIRB

    28.0 pts · proj 8.8 · 99th-percentile game

    30 carries vs a projected 9

    Letdown−16.4
    Case KeenumCase KeenumCHIQB

    0.0 pts · proj 16.4 · 1st-percentile game

    Played 1% of snaps (projected 98%)

  • JAX JAX22@CIN CIN17Final
    Beat expectations+11.2
    Dohnte MeyersDohnte MeyersCINWR

    15.2 pts · proj 4.0 · 99th-percentile game

    9 targets vs a projected 2 — Chase left early

    Letdown−14.9
    Ja'Marr ChaseJa'Marr ChaseCINWR

    5.7 pts · proj 20.6 · 9th-percentile game

    Played 20% of snaps (projected 92%)

  • DAL DAL34@HOU HOU30Final
    Beat expectations+25.2
    CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR

    41.3 pts · proj 16.1 · 99th-percentile game

    21 targets vs a projected 8

    Letdown−9.4
    David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURB

    4.3 pts · proj 13.7 · 12th-percentile game

    No touchdown on 10 touches (10 carries for 24)

  • ARI ARI24@NYG NYG36Final
    Beat expectations+14.0
    Malik NabersMalik NabersNYGWR

    23.2 pts · proj 9.2 · 99th-percentile game

    6 catches for 112 yards on 7 targets

    Letdown−6.5
    Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettARIQB

    10.4 pts · proj 17.0

    3 interceptions (21/35, 166 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT)

  • LAR LAR24@PHI PHI20Final
    Beat expectations+20.2
    Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRB

    36.7 pts · proj 16.5 · 99th-percentile game

    13 targets vs a projected 3

    Letdown−11.0
    Davante AdamsDavante AdamsLARWR

    7.2 pts · proj 18.2 · 14th-percentile game

    4 for 32 on 9 targets

  • GB GB17@TB TB14Final
    Beat expectations+8.6
    Tucker KraftTucker KraftGBTE

    16.5 pts · proj 7.9 · 93rd-percentile game

    6 for 42, 1 TD on 7 targets; 1 carry for 3

    Letdown−7.3
    Bucky IrvingBucky IrvingTBRB

    6.1 pts · proj 13.4 · 15th-percentile game

    0 targets vs a projected 3

  • MIA MIA10@MIN MIN15Final
    Beat expectations+15.6
    T.J. HockensonT.J. HockensonMINTE

    24.9 pts · proj 9.3 · 99th-percentile game

    13 targets vs a projected 5

    Letdown−7.2
    Malik WillisMalik WillisMIAQB

    2.5 pts · proj 9.7 · 8th-percentile game

    17 pass attempts vs a projected 29

  • KC KC30@LV LV27Final
    Beat expectations+23.1
    Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWR

    28.1 pts · proj 5.0 · 99th-percentile game

    8 targets vs a projected 3 — Rice left early

    Letdown−14.3
    Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWR

    0.0 pts · proj 14.3 · 5th-percentile game

    Played 10% of snaps (projected 81%)

  • LAC LAC23@SEA SEA30Final
    Beat expectations+16.8
    Emanuel WilsonEmanuel WilsonSEARB

    27.0 pts · proj 10.2 · 99th-percentile game

    2 touchdowns on 25 touches

    Letdown−10.3
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR

    12.6 pts · proj 22.9

    6 targets vs a projected 11

  • DEN DEN14@SF SF24Final
    Beat expectations+7.4
    RJ HarveyRJ HarveyDENRB

    19.3 pts · proj 11.9 · 85th-percentile game

    10 targets vs a projected 4

    Letdown−9.7
    Courtland SuttonCourtland SuttonDENWR

    1.4 pts · proj 11.1 · 10th-percentile game

    1 catch on 6 targets

  • DET DET26@CAR CAR32Final
    Beat expectations+28.2
    Tetairoa McMillanTetairoa McMillanCARWR

    45.2 pts · proj 17.0 · 99th-percentile game

    16 targets vs a projected 10 — Coker out

    Letdown−8.8
    Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRB

    17.7 pts · proj 26.5

    15 carries for 46, 1 TD; 4 for 31 on 7 targets

  • ATL ATL45@NO NO24Final
    Beat expectations+19.3
    Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRB

    25.7 pts · proj 6.4 · 99th-percentile game

    14 carries vs a projected 8

    Letdown−4.3
    Tyler ShoughTyler ShoughNOQB

    15.9 pts · proj 20.2

    30/48, 286 yds, 1 TD

Projections for weeks before kickoff snapshots began are the same model run as of that week from earlier games only (no live injury or depth inputs).

Week 4 leaderboard

Scoring

Fantasy points minus our last projection before kickoff. The top and bottom of the list are shown; sort any column.

Week leaderboard, vs projection, ALL
Why
Tetairoa McMillanTetairoa McMillanCARWRvs DET45.217.0+28.216 targets vs a projected 10 — Coker out
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWRvs HOU41.316.1+25.221 targets vs a projected 8
Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWRvs LV28.15.0+23.18 targets vs a projected 3 — Rice left early
Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRBvs PHI36.716.5+20.213 targets vs a projected 3
Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRBvs NO25.76.4+19.314 carries vs a projected 8
Kyle MonangaiKyle MonangaiCHIRBvs NYJ28.08.8+19.230 carries vs a projected 9
Emanuel WilsonEmanuel WilsonSEARBvs LAC27.010.2+16.82 touchdowns on 25 touches
Javonte WilliamsJavonte WilliamsDALRBvs HOU31.315.6+15.73 touchdowns on 24 touches
Nico CollinsNico CollinsHOUWRvs DAL30.815.2+15.62 touchdowns on 8 touches
T.J. HockensonT.J. HockensonMINTEvs MIA24.99.3+15.613 targets vs a projected 5
Keon ColemanKeon ColemanBUFWRvs NE23.68.2+15.46 catches for 116 yards on 7 targets
Ollie Gordon IIOllie Gordon IIMIARBvs MIN18.02.7+15.39 carries vs a projected 5 — Achane out
Darius CooperDarius CooperPHIWRvs LAR18.33.1+15.27 targets vs a projected 2
Alvin KamaraAlvin KamaraNORBvs ATL22.87.6+15.27 targets vs a projected 3 — Etienne out
Romeo DoubsRomeo DoubsNEWRvs BUF23.89.6+14.22 touchdowns on 9 touches
Malik NabersMalik NabersNYGWRvs ARI23.29.2+14.06 catches for 112 yards on 7 targets
Quinshon JudkinsQuinshon JudkinsCLERBvs PIT21.69.4+12.27 targets vs a projected 2
Carnell TateCarnell TateTENWRvs BAL21.510.2+11.312 targets vs a projected 7
Dohnte MeyersDohnte MeyersCINWRvs JAX15.24.0+11.29 targets vs a projected 2 — Chase left early
Drake MayeDrake MayeNEQBvs BUF26.215.4+10.73 TD passes (22/37, 269 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 54 rush yds)
Kalif RaymondKalif RaymondCHIWRvs NYJ2.611.1−8.52 targets vs a projected 6
Daniel JonesDaniel JonesINDQBvs WAS7.916.5−8.619/34, 143 yds, 1 INT, 2 rush yds, 1 rush TD
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRBvs CAR17.726.5−8.815 carries for 46, 1 TD; 4 for 31 on 7 targets
Dalton SchultzDalton SchultzHOUTEvs DAL2.911.8−8.92 targets vs a projected 6
Ladd McConkeyLadd McConkeyLACWRvs SEA0.09.0−9.0Played 34% of snaps (projected 71%)
DJ MooreDJ MooreBUFWRvs NE2.712.0−9.3Played 39% of snaps (projected 71%)
David MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryHOURBvs DAL4.313.7−9.4No touchdown on 10 touches (10 carries for 24)
Austin EkelerAustin EkelerWASRBvs IND5.014.4−9.4Played 27% of snaps (projected 63%)
Courtland SuttonCourtland SuttonDENWRvs SF1.411.1−9.71 catch on 6 targets
Dontayvion WicksDontayvion WicksPHIWRvs LAR4.814.6−9.85 targets vs a projected 8
Marcus MariotaMarcus MariotaWASQBvs IND5.315.2−9.9Played 16% of snaps (projected 56%)
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRvs LAC12.622.9−10.36 targets vs a projected 11
Saquon BarkleySaquon BarkleyPHIRBvs LAR2.012.7−10.7Played 7% of snaps (projected 65%)
Davante AdamsDavante AdamsLARWRvs PHI7.218.2−11.04 for 32 on 9 targets
Josh DownsJosh DownsINDWRvs WAS4.615.6−11.04 targets vs a projected 9
Garrett WilsonGarrett WilsonNYJWRvs CHI5.718.8−13.14 targets vs a projected 11
Parker WashingtonParker WashingtonJAXWRvs CIN2.015.6−13.63 targets vs a projected 8
Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWRvs LV0.014.3−14.3Played 10% of snaps (projected 81%)
Ja'Marr ChaseJa'Marr ChaseCINWRvs JAX5.720.6−14.9Played 20% of snaps (projected 92%)
Case KeenumCase KeenumCHIQBvs NYJ0.016.4−16.4Played 1% of snaps (projected 98%)

Team defenses vs projection

Season-long scoring (DraftKings alongside). Points allowed leave out the opponent’s own return touchdowns and safeties, as ESPN and Yahoo score them.

Team defenses: actual fantasy points against the pregame projection
DefensePtsProjvs proj
NYGNYG D/ST vs ARI14.05.0(0–10)+9.0
SEASEA D/ST vs LAC12.07.5(2–13)+4.5
ARIARI D/ST vs NYG9.05.4(1–10)+3.6
CLECLE D/ST vs PIT9.05.6(1–11)+3.4
INDIND D/ST vs WAS7.04.8(1–9)+2.2
JAXJAX D/ST vs CIN7.05.1(0–11)+1.9
GBGB D/ST vs TB8.06.8(2–12)+1.3
NYJNYJ D/ST vs CHI5.04.4(0–9)+0.6
NENE D/ST vs BUF5.04.7(0–10)+0.3
PHIPHI D/ST vs LAR5.05.0(0–10)0.0
MIAMIA D/ST vs MIN5.05.2(0–11)−0.2
WASWAS D/ST vs IND5.05.2(0–11)−0.2
CHICHI D/ST vs NYJ6.06.4(2–11)−0.4
TBTB D/ST vs GB5.05.5(1–11)−0.5
PITPIT D/ST vs CLE6.07.0(2–12)−1.0
CINCIN D/ST vs JAX4.05.2(0–10)−1.2
MINMIN D/ST vs MIA7.08.3(3–14)−1.3
LACLAC D/ST vs SEA4.05.3(0–11)−1.3
ATLATL D/ST vs NO4.05.4(1–11)−1.4
HOUHOU D/ST vs DAL4.05.6(1–11)−1.6
BALBAL D/ST vs TEN5.06.8(2–11)−1.7
TENTEN D/ST vs BAL2.03.9(-1–9)−1.9
SFSF D/ST vs DEN3.05.0(0–10)−2.0
KCKC D/ST vs LV4.06.1(1–12)−2.1
LARLAR D/ST vs PHI4.06.5(2–12)−2.5
DENDEN D/ST vs SF2.04.5(0–10)−2.5
BUFBUF D/ST vs NE4.06.8(2–12)−2.7
DALDAL D/ST vs HOU1.04.0(0–9)−3.0
CARCAR D/ST vs DET1.04.6(0–10)−3.6
DETDET D/ST vs CAR2.06.1(1–11)−4.1
LVLV D/ST vs KC1.05.6(0–11)−4.6
NONO D/ST vs ATL-2.05.8(1–11)−7.8

2026 season: over and under expected

Through Week 4, games with play-by-play only.

Scoring the most above what their usage usually produces (3+ games). History says about a quarter of that edge carries forward: sell-high candidates.

Most points over expected this season
Zay FlowersZay FlowersBALWR322.412.2+10.2Sell high
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWR429.219.6+9.6Sell high
Brock PurdyBrock PurdySFQB425.115.9+9.2Sell high
Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATLRB426.419.2+7.2Sell high
Josh AllenJosh AllenBUFQB428.121.2+6.9Sell high
CeeDee LambCeeDee LambDALWR428.121.4+6.6Sell high
Deebo Samuel Sr.Deebo Samuel Sr.SFWR414.58.6+5.8Sell high
Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBALQB419.814.0+5.7Sell high
George KittleGeorge KittleSFTE416.110.4+5.7Sell high
Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesKCQB420.915.2+5.7Sell high
Chuba HubbardChuba HubbardCARRB419.814.4+5.3Sell high
Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKCRB427.522.6+4.9Sell high
Brian RobinsonBrian RobinsonATLRB412.17.3+4.8Sell high
Travis KelceTravis KelceKCTE413.28.6+4.5Sell high
Justin JeffersonJustin JeffersonMINWR315.010.4+4.5Sell high
Kyren WilliamsKyren WilliamsLARRB422.418.0+4.4Sell high
Mike GesickiMike GesickiCINTE314.810.6+4.3Sell high
Drake LondonDrake LondonATLWR414.310.2+4.2Sell high
Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDETRB429.024.8+4.2Sell high
Josh CameronJosh CameronJAXWR38.14.0+4.1Sell high
Tyquan ThorntonTyquan ThorntonKCWR411.27.2+4.1Sell high
Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBALRB422.718.8+4.0Sell high
Christian WatsonChristian WatsonGBWR419.315.3+4.0Sell high
Rashee RiceRashee RiceKCWR312.78.9+3.7Sell high
Jalen CokerJalen CokerCARWR317.413.8+3.6Sell high

Next: Ascension (rising usage) · Waiver wire · Projections

How this works

vs projection compares his fantasy points with the last projection we published before his game kicked off (mean, with the 10th–90th percentile range). While a game is on, the projection is scaled by the share of the game played, by quarter and clock.

Expected points (xFP) come from our own play-level model fitted on 2023–25 play-by-play: each target is valued by its air yards, field position and down, each carry by field position, down and whether it was a scramble, each pass attempt by air yards and field position. On 2024–25 games it was not fitted on, xFP averaged within 1–6% of actual points at every position and correlated 0.98 with ffopportunity’s public model.

FPOE = points − xFP. Across 2023–25 it barely carried from one week to the next (r = 0.05) while expected points did (r = 0.34): treat a big FPOE as regression risk, and big usage with a negative FPOE as a buy-low.

Sources: nflverse play-by-play and weekly stats, ESPN box scores (live)Updated Sun, Oct 11, 9:45 AM ET

Frequently asked questions

What does “over expected” mean here?

Two things. Versus projection: his fantasy points minus our pregame projection (the last one made before his game kicked off). Versus opportunity, or FPOE: his points minus what a league-average player scores with the same targets, carries and pass attempts from the same spots on the field (expected fantasy points, xFP).

Should I chase a big FPOE week?

Usually not. Across 2023–25 a player’s FPOE one week had almost no relationship with the next (correlation 0.05), and only about a quarter of a half-season’s FPOE carried into the second half. A big positive FPOE is a sell-high signal; a big negative FPOE with heavy usage is a buy-low. Expected points from usage hold up far better (week-to-week correlation 0.34).

What is the “pace” number during games?

While a game is on, his projection is scaled by how much of the game has been played (by quarter and clock), so a receiver with 12 points at halftime is compared with half of his projection. It is a rough guide: usage is not spread evenly across a game. Final numbers replace it after the game.

When do the final numbers land?

Live numbers come from box scores every 15 minutes during games. Expected points need play-by-play, which nflverse publishes the morning after; FPOE and the final leaderboard update then (Monday night games on Tuesday).