Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
RB	349–510–87	40.6%	38.2%
TE	371–558–194	39.9%	39.1%
QB	198–194–19	50.5%	49.6%
WR	479–778–89	38.1%	36.3%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	716–1049–204	40.6%	39.1%
0.25–0.5	651–959–183	40.4%	38.7%
0.5–1	29–31–2	48.3%	48.3%
1+	1–1	50.0%	49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Starters out on defense calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Odell Beckham Jr.WR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Sterling ShepardWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	3.4	0.0	−3.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Curtis SamuelWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Kendrick BourneWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	6.7	0.0	−6.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tim PatrickWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	3.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Mack HollinsWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	11.7	8.3	−3.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	David MooreWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	3.5	0.0	−3.5	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Zay JonesWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	3.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	9.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Braxton BerriosWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	0.6	0.0	−0.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Trent SherfieldWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Allen LazardWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	3.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	DJ MooreWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	12.1	2.7	−9.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Steven SimsWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jakobi MeyersWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	12.7	6.3	−6.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Hunter RenfrowWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	5.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Mecole HardmanWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Greg DortchWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	1.5	0.0	−1.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darius SlaytonWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	7.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tom KennedyWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.6	0.0	−1.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	A.J. BrownWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	9.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Andre BaccelliaWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dan ChisenaWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Isaiah HodginsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	5.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Gabe DavisWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	4.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darnell MooneyWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	4.7	0.0	−4.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tee HigginsWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	16.3	26.7	+10.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tim JonesWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Simi FehokoWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brandon SmithWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Austin TrammellWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	2.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	20.6	5.7	−14.8	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	19.8	15.5	−4.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Elijah MooreWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.4	0.0	−2.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh PalmerWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	3.8	1.3	−2.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Bo MeltonWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	1.9	0.0	−1.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Britain CoveyWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jameson WilliamsWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	12.7	16.2	+3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Khalil ShakirWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	9.7	13.2	+3.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tay MartinWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	John Metchie IIIWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	5.0	6.7	+1.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Garrett WilsonWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	18.9	5.7	−13.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Romeo DoubsWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	9.4	23.8	+14.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Skyy MooreWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	3.9	0.8	−3.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Christian WatsonWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	13.3	7.7	−5.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dontayvion WicksWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	14.6	4.8	−9.8	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik HeathWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	1.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Xavier GipsonWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	2.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Michael WilsonWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	14.5	16.5	+2.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Charlie JonesWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.3	0.0	−1.3	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Parker WashingtonWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	15.5	2.0	−13.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Andrei IosivasWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	6.2	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	DeMario DouglasWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	6.0	3.5	−2.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jalen BrooksWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.1	0.0	−1.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tyrell ShaversWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	2.9	7.9	+5.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brycen TremayneWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	3.6	5.2	+1.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Malik CunninghamWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jalin HyattWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jayden ReedWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	5.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik NabersWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	9.2	23.2	+14.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tejhaun PalmerWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	1.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	6.2	15.3	+9.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jalen CokerWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	12.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Xavier WeaverWR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	2.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)	7.6	8.2	+0.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	9.8	9.7	−0.1	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Keon ColemanWR BUF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)	7.9	23.6	+15.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Savion WilliamsWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Darius CooperWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	3.1	18.3	+15.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	16.8	45.2	+28.4	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Kyle WilliamsWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	2.9	0.0	−2.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Dominic LovettWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	11.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Quentin SkinnerWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dalen CambreWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Beaux CollinsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Efton Chism IIIWR NE	Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)	2.2	12.2	+10.0	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Arian SmithWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.8	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Dalevon CampbellWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)	2.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Matthew GoldenWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	10.5	11.7	+1.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Isaac TeSlaaWR DET	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)	5.7	13.5	+7.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Dohnte MeyersWR CIN	Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)	3.9	15.2	+11.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Makai LemonWR PHI	Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)	8.4	5.7	−2.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	J. Michael SturdivantWR GB	Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)	2.1	0.0	−2.1	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malachi FieldsWR NYG	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	6.7	13.2	+6.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Josh CameronWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	3.1	6.2	+3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	C.J. WilliamsWR JAX	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)	1.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Malik McClainWR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	1.0	0.0	−1.0	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Omar Cooper Jr.WR NYJ	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)	2.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Brandin CooksWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	4.6	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Mike EvansWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	12.7	12.4	−0.3	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Tyreek HillWR MIA	Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)	11.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	David MooreWR CAR	Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)	2.6	0.0	−2.6	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W3	Russell GageWR SF	Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC

Page 1 of 27 · 2,627 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse